(A Brace for Bloody Winters)

The long awaited Obama Speech is over. It is to wait and see the impact of the third surge in a highly destabilized, charged and violent region. The endgame if one dares, is not what Secretary Clinton wants us to believe.

I would describe the new strategy as a tight balloon in hot air that may rapture even before it reaches close to its objectives. The speech makes all the right noises of an establishment given up on the doctrine of ‘Shock and Awe’ that promoted absolutism in distant lands. It recognizes Pakistan’s integrity, sovereignty and welfare of the people.  Following intense lobbying between State Department and Pentagon, there appears a lead role for the Pentagon working in tandem with Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) previously headed by General Stanley McChrystal from the Vice President’s Office and the CIA.

Obama is in similar establishment pressure that Kennedy had to bear in Bay of Pigs and when he wanted to thin out from Vietnam. Cognisant that he should not go down in history as ‘Obama who never was’, the new AF-PAK strategy is a compromise with enough blank space for narratives to be filled later. It is these blank narratives that cause concern. As clarifications from Gates and Clinton suggest:

There is not a deadline. There is- what we have is a specific date on which we will begin transferring responsibility for security, district by district, province by province, in Afghanistan to the Afghans. The process of that and the subsequent thinning of our forces will take place over a period of time and will happen – and will be done based on the conditions on the ground, and the decision on that will be made by our commanders in the field.

The speech is but the tip of iceberg diplomacy. What lies undisclosed is high intensity sting and covert intelligence operations conducted by CIA and the dreaded JSOC. The message is unambiguous. Pakistan will have to face a surge of expanded drone attacks by both JSOC and CIA, and a cruel spate of covertly sanctioned illegal assassinations, sting operations and anarchy generated by contractors besides the routine State Department leaks capable of breaking hell in Pakistan.

Conspicuously, there is no mention of India in the script. It is also mysterious that all regional powers including China, Russia and Iran are maintaining an eerie silence on AF-PAK Strategy.

But this is the script left to Pakistan’s Security Establishment and hapless people to contend with. The much needed public support to this war on terrorism could slowly erode creating a vicious reaction; something needed to declare Pakistan an unstable state under the UN auspices.

The other dimensions of this war will be shaped by our very own.

Pakistan’s political establishment has not behaved in a manner worthy of a country at war on multiple fronts. Narrow political agendas are too endearing to spare a moment for a larger mission. There is a laissez faire and total absence of political structuring, be it meeting heads of foreign missions, dignitaries or foreign intelligence agencies.  US diplomacy holds a carrot for politicians to push back the military and intelligence agencies at the perilous cost of the existence of the state itself.

Pakistan’s economy is in a downward spiral with no hedging. Within a decade, the country is energy deficient. Agriculture sector, the only positive indicators for many decades is being manipulated to a position of becoming non productive. The farmer has been exposed to the greedy cartels, which the government shows no resolve to control.

It began with the manipulative buying of sugar cane followed by the disappearance of Atta from the market during a bumper year. Now the paddy crops are ready with no buyers while the value added industry is going hoarse over extra ordinary exports of raw cotton and yarn. The latest is the manipulation of tomato prices in Sindh by cartels from Rs. 80 to a paltry Rs. 2.

India has acquired the capability to manipulate the waters of Chenab feeding Punjab. Kishen Ganga project will affect the planned Neelum Project and Mangla reservoir. There are reports that IRSA has refused water to Punjab from River Indus implying that Southern Punjab will not produce enough winter crops that it normally does raising the ante on food security as also give impetus to the movement for devolving the province.

The Sales Tax imposed in 2000 was legislated as a Value Addition Tax (VAT) that never served its purpose. It is yet again being changed to VAT. Traditionally, such taxes are imposed on growing and developing economies. In Pakistan, suffice to say that the effects of this taxation on an ailing, sinking and manipulative economy will be negative.

This is not a comedy of errors but a deliberately executed policy to halt the wheels. As poverty grows, so will the, frustration and crime in society.  This fits into the US Schemes of shaping the environment.

The blanks in the narrative and the implosion being generated within are the hot air that would inevitably lead to a clash between the armed forces, intelligence agencies and the present government. It will also be exploited by self styled experts and media hungry generals to spill beans long after they had sold their conscience, something that serves to prove many US hypotheses on the Pakistan defence establishment.

The next 18 months and beyond will be difficult for Pakistan and its national security. The government and politicians have to move away from their self preserving policies to a broad canvas of national consensus. It is also crucial to move from a US enforced war strategy to an approach based on national consensus that takes cognizance of justifiable US sensibilities and concerns. Some of the contours of such a policy are:

• A broad minimum consensus on national security that addresses the war on terrorism, fast track socio economic development at grass roots and economic hedging.

• Take China, Russia and Iran into confidence on how Pakistan intends to play its role in the latest surge.

• Persuade USA to support Pakistan against the secessionist movement in Balochistan.

• Identify and dissected various brands of militants within a broad name of Taliban and deal them separately both politically and militarily. The purpose: to isolate groups with links to al Qaeda.

• Shift counter insurgency operations from a sledge hammer strategy to precision actions based on intelligence, air support and air mobile tactics.

• Just like USA is engaging Afghan Taliban, we must also engage their sympathisers in Pakistan to draw them away from the al Qaeda operatives and urban terrorists towards a negotiated political settlement in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

• Stop dragging feet on the National Counter Terrorism Authority (NACTA) and legislate it as an effective mechanism to counter insurgency and urban terrorism. It must co-opt representative from the armed forces, law enforcement agencies, intelligence, local bodies, civil society and media. The temptation to fill political slots must be resisted.

• The spirit of nationhood must be carried forward from the NFC Award to all other areas of national cohesion, well being and security.

• The private media must formulate a national security code of conduct on sensitive national security matters and black out self styled belatedly confessing opportunists.

The government of Pakistan has to appreciate the dangers to Pakistan’s integrity and security arising out of the third surge. The opportunities have to be recognised, even if it be at the cost of short term tactical disadvantage. The bottom line is that after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, Pakistan must emerge as a responsible nuclear power with no scope for private armies led by criminals, thugs and militants. This means bracing for a bloody winter in the urban areas.

Brigadier Samson Simon Sharaf is a retired officer of Pakistan Army and a Political Economist.

Colonel Jaffery narrating the migrations of 1947 writes, “A mutilated old man reached Pakistan on a train and asked him, has Pakistan come?  When told it had, he closed his eyes and died’. His destination: The Dreamland of Pakistan.

In an emotional and controversial address to his constituency, the President of Pakistan, Mr. Asif Ali Zardari referred to the country as Sindhu Desh. In his fiery and reactive speech, this was perhaps the only silver lining. Deliberately or otherwise, he had touched a very sensitive issue of nationhood.

The politicians of Sindh unlike the Unionists of Punjab have been more Pakistani in many ways than they are accredited. Jinnah, the Syeds, Qazis, Soomros and Bhuttos are but to name a few.

Reviewing the annals of history, we are pleasantry reminded that Pakistan was never the realization of one ethnicity, sect or mindset. It was a struggle based on the aspirations of diverse groups and still remains so.

The Baloch voted for the creation with an overwhelming majority. At a crucial time the princely states of Balochistan were advised by Maulana Azad to join Pakistan. Nawab Akbar Bugti valiantly stood by the concept of Pakistan.  Can we forget the roles of the Khosas, Jamalis, Qazi Issa, Achakzais, Mandokhels, Jogehezais?

Similarly, the people of NWFP rejected the Congress friendly approach of Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan and rallied to the beck and call of Khan Abdul Qayyum Khan. Many tribal leaders preferred to join Pakistan rather than live under the Afghan-Indian intrigue.

Let us also not forget the people of Bengal and their leaders including Sheikh Mujib ur Rehman, a young firebrand Muslim Leaguer.  These were all sons of the soil who organised the Muslim Education Conference to Muslim League. They lived comfortably within their own majorities least affected by the Congress-Muslim League (Hindu-Muslim) divide. Yet they chose to be Pakistan.

Christians of Punjab and Sindh voted unanimously in favour of Pakistan. Leaders such as S P Singha, Joshua Fazal Din, Chandu Lal and Gibbons remained Quaid e Azam’s most trusted allies in difficult and treacherous times. So did both factions of the Ahmediya Jamaat. They were Pakistanis by choice and never the conquered people. They were also the torch bearers of Pakistan Movement that ran the last but one lap. Men like S M Burke made remarkable contributions in articulating Pakistan’s foreign policy.

Those who ran the last lap sacrificed the most. They had faced the brunt of socio economic injustices and struggled valiantly within their enclaves and ghettos for Pakistan. They migrated from far afar on carts, trains and foot. Very few would know that these hapless caravans also comprised Christians from as far away as South India and Delhi. Most as events proved tragically, left one ghetto, to create another. They still ask, ‘Has Pakistan come?’

Within the premise of the Two Nation Theory and Lahore Resolution, the State that Quaid e Azam promised was an Inclusive Country with Muslim majority; A modern nation-state where people from all walks, ethnicities and beliefs were equal citizens.  But as events proved, these die-hard supporters were condemned. Patriotism and nationalism became an exclusive domain of few. Calls for devolution were construed as sub nationalism and separatism. Traitors became a term to define dissent and men such as Faiz and Mian Ifthikhar, the architects of the Kashmir resistance were quickly dubbed as traitors.

My father Lal Din Sharaf, then a young and firebrand revolutionary poet attended the gathering at Manto Park Lahore on 23-24 March 1940. He noted these words of Quaid e Azam in his diary, “Pakistan is a Nation and now must have defined Boundaries”.

For this and many other reasons, I have always opined that PAKISTANIAT is distinct in its evolution. It took birth much before the geography of Pakistan was drawn.  If we accept Quaid’s logic of Nation before a Boundary, Pakistaniat existed in the hearts and minds of millions of people who subsequently migrated to East and West Pakistan as also those states that joined Pakistan by choice. Unfortunately, the concept of a Pakistani nationhood has since deteriorated. The ownership has gradually shifted to those who never made a choice.

There is another dimension to the geographical notion of Pakistan. Historically, the people of Indus were called Sindhu. The term Hindu is a derivative of both Sindhu and Schinde. The little discovered Nara Civilisation that existed along and astride the banks of this river system pre-dates Mohenjo-Daro, Harappa and Mehr Garh. Over ten thousand years old the region had been the world centre at least thrice; the Nara (Sarasvati) Age, Mohenjo-Daro and the Great Mauryan Empire. It ruled the world as far away as Greece and Egypt. It had a river system of which Indus was just a part. This Great Nara River entered what is now Pakistan near Fort Abbas and debouched at a place Nagar Par Kar (cross the river). This is the land of world’s highest mountains, largest river systems and oldest deserts. This was the wonderland imbedded in the innate memories of us people.

Indeed, if both the spirit of Pakistaniat that predated its boundaries and innate memories of dreamland morphed into the Pakistani construct of nationhood articulately enunciated by Quaid e Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah, what went wrong?

The quest of inventing a nation that already existed, repeated military interventions, misuse of religion for expediencies and political violence has all but obscured the Pakistan that Jinnah created. The bureaucracy, trained to rule fared no better. The two combined with the political rats jumping ships to create a ruling elite. The thesis to emerge was the indispensability of an individual in the backdrop of extreme national vulnerability. Those who challenged the drift or showed imagination were singled out as non conformists, ambitious, pseudo, alarmist and traitors.

These distortions to the national fabric were pronounced during the Zia era and snowballed thereafter. Unfortunately, the last three decades (1977-2008) comprise 19 years of exclusive military dictatorships. If we add the troika factor that continued to remove successive elected regimes, then the past 30 years are patrolled by a praetorian mindset.

The latest round of democracy has landed through a very bloody route. Pakistan’s highlands are burning and economy sinking. The process of nation building has to begin now. It is time to act! President Zardari has to build a spirit of national reconciliation and reconstruction. He has to be accountable to emotions and reflections that highlighted his own speech.  This is no time to complain and mourn the past nor any space left for political stratagems.

Mr. Asif Ali Zardari, please get out of your paranoia, self pity and persecution complex. You are the all powerful President of a democratic dispensation that ever was. The Bhutto Legacy inasmuch as it is yours is also ours. You are the head of an empowered democratic regime with a friendly opposition in place.

Your challenges are not opinion makers but the people for whom you have to deliver. Your challenge lies in answering with actions and not rhetoric, the many questions you raised about Pakistan’s identity.

Despite any dilemmas and daemons you confront, your challenge is to take the bull by the horns; Come on, pick the baton and lead the way for Jinnah’s Pakistan! This would forever cleanse you of all malignancies that haunt you and your party.

The Parliament has to take a new guard and play out a long resolute innings without loosing wickets. If they do, the people of Pakistan will see hope and coalesce the way they did as recently as the earthquake of 2005 and against militancy.

Our Destination inevitably is, ‘The Wonderland of Pakistan’. Even if we die doing it, the spirit must keep marching on. This is what Benazir Bhutto did.

Brigadier Samson Simon Sharaf

Brigadier  (r) Samson Simon Sharaf

When Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto entrusted Major General Naseer Ullah Babar to create a student dominated resistance in Afghanistan, he ignored a very important lesson of power politics. Hans Joachim Morgenthau in his book, Politics Amongst Nations had observed, ‘The statesman must think in terms of the national interest, conceived as power among other powers’. Was this ignorance or deliberate? Determined to create a new Pakistan, Bhutto was riding a wave of diplomatic successes. It seems he decided to taste the forbidden fruit. Negotiations with India had been successful. OIC Summit at Lahore ended Pakistan’s international isolation. The Arab Oil Embargo upset the Western cash flows. Foundations of Nuclear Program were laid and Pakistan was ready to pay any price (also eat grass) for its independence and development. Next, in his calculus of an overbearing India, it was important to eliminate the spectre of a two front war by resolving the Durand issue. He decided to exploit the fault lines of Parcham and Khalq and force Sardar Daud to a negotiated settlement. The narrative though India specific, insipidly looked beyond; to a Muslim Power Bloc. It challenged the Bi Polar International equilibrium. Afghan youngsters like Ahmad Shah Masood, Hikmatyar, Khalis and Rabbani played their role and Daud did come to the negotiating table. He even initialled the Pakistan-Afghan Joint communiqué for formalisation of Durand Line. Both Bhutto and Daud were waiting for an opportune moment; but then the gods, unhappy with Pakistan’s strategic forays struck. Bhutto paid dearly for challenging the dictum of Morgenthau in more than one way. He was removed in a military coup led by his hand picked and most humble general. In subsequent years, Zia despite overtures by Daud, showed no inclination to settle the boundary issue. Daud was killed in a coup. During the law and order situation created in Afghanistan by the Parchamis, Khaqis and Pakistan sponsored student leaders, Soviet Union finally moved in. For a despot, it was an opportunity for international legitimacy. To satisfy his domestic audience, he could now exploit both the Afghan occupation and Iran’s revolution to create a religious fervour underlined by his Ideology of Islam. He got international support from the West and domestic from the rightist. Having led the Afghan resistance under the shadow of Charlie Wilson, he too indulged in the cardinal sin. Zia expanded the nuclear program and began to look beyond Durand to a Pan Islamic Nationhood. For defying the Morgenthau Dictum he was blown up in mid air. What followed is mayhem in Afghanistan that inevitably spilled to Pakistan. A measure of it was visible in Pakistan around Shia places of worship. If there was a doubt about such home grown militant organisations, they were dispelled after 9/11 with repeated attacks on Christian places of worship and arrest of Al Qaeda linked militants. The genie had morphed into a monster and needed to be controlled. If we blame the USA for abandoning the Afghan Mujahidin what are we to say of these home-grown militants? As events prove, we are wrong on both counts. Michael Springmann an official of US consulate in Jeddah Saudi Arabia in 1987-88, reported that CIA had a program to bring people to the United States for terrorist training in connivance with the host country. The largest branch of al-Khifa was in Brooklyn’s Atlantic Avenue, New York. Other branches were in Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Pittsburgh, and elsewhere. Similarly, Al-Khifa had a training camp in Connecticut. A number of important al Qaeda figures attended the University of Arizona in Tucson or lived in Tucson in the 1980s and early 1990s. One such recruit was Khalid Sheikh Muhammad, the alleged mastermind of 9/11 and uncle of Ramzi Yousaf. The FBI investigation into the later US embassy bombings in Nairobi and Dar-es-Salaam in 1998 was said to have found that the traces from the explosions came from an American military explosive, of the type of which the CIA had apparently given to the “Arab Afghans” just three years before. Militants of Pakistani descent rather than Arabs, were a new genre created for covert operations in Bosnia and other parts of Europe. A covert operation outside the eyes of Pakistan’s intelligence services was underway. It appears that after the Soviets withdrawal from Afghanistan during 1988-9, a dual policy emerged between the US State Department and the CIA. While the State Department focused to moderate Afghan factions and undermine the Soviet-installed Najibullah regime, CIA continued military support of Hekmatyar and other Islamists. Arabs fighters continued to flow into the region through the recruitment and training program. Pakistani ones were to be preferred for operations elsewhere. USA may have abandoned the mujahidin, but never the region. Non States actors soon became the floating threat of future wars and cross hairs steadily began to shift to Pakistan’s Nuclear Capability. Meanwhile Kashmir and India were the only threat narratives of Pakistan’s security establishment. Such are the vagaries of small nations challenging the equilibrium. Would events have been different if Bhutto was not overthrown? The subject is like an onion that has to be pealed layer by layer.

Pakistan, to remain Pakistan

has no option but to eat grass in alligator infested waters

Brigadier (r) Samson Simon Sharaf

The end of World War I was disastrous for the victors. The Treaty of Versailles hurt German national pride. Hitler came to power followed by World War II. The over heated US economy that had grown during the Great War had nowhere to flow. The crash of 30s was an opportunity for the German juggernaut.

When history repeated itself in World War II, the lesson for victors was clear. War and Economics had to be inter-related. Post World War II world had to be handled in a manner that created and sustained international equilibrium. One such step was the Breton Woods Conference setting the course for a New World Order based on international financial and development institutions with constraints on countries like Germany and Japan over the size and role of defence forces. The new order was to prevent growth of new centres of power.

The Cold War witnessed the efficacy of this order till it was disrupted by the Muslim Oil Embargo of 1973 threatening the Gold Dollar Equation. Billions of dollars poured into the coffers of Muslim oil producing countries. Within the next decade this loss was recovered by the West by creating a vulnerability psyche within the rich Muslim countries forcing them to spend heavily on defence equipment. By mid 80s, the entire wealth amassed through surging oil prices had been converted through military imperialism to a security dependency. The three main actors of this Muslim surge were eventually isolated with two murdered and the third thrown out of his country. Through a new system of multi lateral funding the losses of the West (oil embargo of the 70s) were converted to the debt of third world and military dependency of the rich Muslim countries. Pakistan despite amassing some debt remained the only country that continued to maintain an independent defence and nuclear policy but not for long.

During the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, Pakistan willingly became a bridgehead for a Mock Jihad orchestrated to only serve the western interests. Despite influx of huge aid and funding, the economic managers took no cognizance of the effects of the Oil Embargo.

In the New World Order, Pakistan emerged as a security state arising from its vulnerability against an over arching India. There never was another enemy. No thought was ever given to the fact that in all conflicts against India, International opinion was always biased against Pakistan and to live under sanctions was an obvious outcome. The lesson was even ignored when nuclear sanctions were clamped on Pakistan for over a decade.

Pakistan’s economic managers continued to rely heavily in favour of international monetary institutions thereby ceding financial initiative. Strong military dictatorships looking for international legitimacy expediently became hostage to these institutions facilitating political manipulation. While the defence establishment continued to grow stronger, the core policy construct ignored critical issues like home grown militancy, importance of an unregistered entrepreneur, pluralism in society, ethnicity and dynamics emerging out of an abandoned Afghanistan with its backwash in Pakistan.

The net outcome was the emergence of a militant hardcore, weaponisation of society and drug money. In the past decade, the banking sector glutted with liquidity introduced consumerism and curtailed domestic production. Pakistan never ever braced itself for the rainy day.

After the Cold War, Pakistan was ripe and vulnerable to orchestrating an implosion along the main disconnects of a security state and vulnerable political economy. No thought was ever given to the fact that a time could come when Pakistan would be forced to sell its interests for a dime.

In the meanwhile the Western notion of a future war began to theorise around a floating, invisible threat of Islamic militants transcending international borders. Pakistan adapted no hedging policies against home grown militant outfits. At some stage many such organisations fraternised with international intelligence agencies beginning a treacherous game of betrayal. A point has now reached when the genie keeps knocking doors of the security apparatus all over Pakistan.

Pakistan’s contribution to the present situation is only secondary. Critics forget that it is in the crosshair not because it produces terrorism but rather suffering from the Afghan Burnout strategy. However, this explanation in no way absolves the State of not playing its role in national cohesion.

After the withdrawal of Soviet Union from Afghanistan, the rehabilitation of Mujahadeen was rejected by Charlie Wilson saying that dollars do not grow on trees. Afghanistan was left to burnout in a murderous spree of warlords and private armies supported by the regional neighbours and Middle Eastern Countries. Concerted efforts by Pakistan to contain the situation through reconciliation received lukewarm or no support from USA and UN. Herein also begins another trail of international betrayal by friends of Pakistan who acted as masters. The worst role was played by countries Pakistan depended for aid; to a point they began to assume control and still do in Pakistan’s internal politics.

In the interim, Osama Bin Laden was allowed to grow from a little known CIA logistics operative to a monster bred in Africa. He was then moved in Lockheed C-130s from Sudan to Afghanistan, a rallying ground for all strains of nomadic revolutionaries; unwanted by their own countries. If the western threat assessments were indeed realistic, then why was Osama in presence of USAF and OBL Monitoring stations not intercepted and force landed. Events that followed highlight that US Security, Intelligence and Academia were apparently pursuing divergent objectives that ultimately morphed into the definition of AF-PAK. At the heart of the issue are two objectives unacceptable to Pakistan; a preferential role for India in the region followed by control over Pakistan’s Nuclear Systems.

In Afghanistan, USA and its coalition are fighting a generation born to romantic revolutionaries of the Afghan War, joined by politically alienated Pashtuns and nomadic warriors from world over. US cooperation with the non Pashtun Northern Alliance and drone attacks in Pakistan have deliberately coalesced ethno-religious resistance which over a period of time has married up with other diverse militant organisations as also with foreign intelligence agencies.

The interplay of such conflicting dynamics within the politic fabric; is now Pakistan’s own war for survival. The war that began in 1975 through Bhutto’s espousing of Afghan student leaders has now entered its final phase and a ‘do or die’ situation. Its bloodiest chapters will be fought in South Waziristan and Punjab with USA keen to open a face-saving front in Balochistan. This is where the true test of Pakistan’s sovereignty will lie.

Pakistan’s only choice is to militarily defeat these radical groups bred in intolerance, savagery and a stand alone romantic notion of religion. Pakistani nation will have to fight this war on its own terms not only with the militants but also with supposed friends in the hybrid zone of ‘neither friend nor foe’.

Every deal with a weak hand is a bad deal. No more deals please.

Brigadier Samson Simon Sharaf is a retired officer of Pakistan Army and a political economist.
E mail: nicco1988@hotmail.com

AIR MARSHAL (Retd) AYAZ AHMED KHAN

After the rout of Swat Taliban, and the death of Baiullah Mehsud, the Taliban sponsored terrorism in Pakistan has lost its sting. But the terrorists remain entrenched in Waziristan, and Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan has threatened to continue suicide bombings, killings and arson. On August 27 the bombing of a security post near the Afghan border and death of 20 FC soldiers; on August 30 the death of twenty police cadets in the suicide bombing of the Mingora Police Training Center; provides evidence of terrorists motives and capability. The heartless gunning down of school children in the Khyber Agency, and torching of petrol tankers, proves that terrorism is around, and needs sustained government and public effort and determined military action to weed out the killers. The terrorists will conjtinue to mount attacks from their safe heavens in Waziristan, which need to be identified and neutralized.
With the on going Army, FC and Vigilante (Lashkars) operations, the defeated Swat terrorists are unlikely to surface to challenge the writ of the state, but could launch guerrilla attacks and bombings. They are on the run, and are being hunted down by the security forces, and the pro-government lashkars. This policy in Swat should continue till terrorists are eliminated. But the terrorists in North and South Wazirstan, Orakzai, Khyber and in some areas of Bajaur Agency numbering around twentyfive thousand are regrouping around the new TTP leadership led by Hakimullah Mehsud. Tentacles of Tehrik-e-Taliban have spread. The Bombay terrorism, attack on the Sri Lanka cricket team and spate of Taliban attacks in Lahore, proves that TTP tentacles have spread into south Punjab. TTP and Tamil terrorists could have joined hands in the attacks on the Sri Lankan cricket team. The changed dimension of the threat, is the countrywide dispersal of Taliban, especially in the Pukhtunkwa and Punjab cities, and cooperation with the al-Qaeda and Taliban in Afghanistan. The increasing cooperation with frustrated Punjabi youth in Southern Punjab, should be a matter of concern. TTP’s possible cooperation with Tamil Tigers must be investgated into.
After the August 05 death of Baitullah Mehsud, and with the fire fights between some factions, and assasinations of some key TTP commanders, it appeared that TTP will implode. But with the appointment of Hakimullah Mehsud as Amir by the Tehrik-Taliban Shoora, with the blessing of Taliban Amir-Al-Mominin Mulla Omar on August 26, the TTP power-struggle is over for the moment. With Mullah Omar’s blessing Hakimullah is in the saddle. With plans for greater cooperation with the Afghanistan Taliban, his actions must be carefully watched. Alive he is as dangerous as Baitullah Mehsud. The 29 year-old new TTP Amir heads gangs of wantonly brutal bands of cut throat murderers, totaling over twenty five thousand.They are well armed, and experienced in suicide bombings, guerrilla attacks, ambushes, kidnapping for ransom, extortion, and murders. What is their common bond? It is not Islam, it is crime, making illegal money from warlords and contractors by blackmail and extortion. It is monetary reward from Afghan Taliban, drug mafia’s and enemy agents to create myhem and anarchy. The way they have been bombing mosques during Friday prayers, and launcing suicide bombers to massacre hundreds of fellow Pushtuns, and Pakistani citizens proves that they are paid brainwashed barbarians, who must be eliminated to save the Pakistani nation. They are violent, intolerant and trigger happy.
After the success in Swat and Malakand, the military inaction in North and South Waziristan, has given them time to regroup, re-equip and evolve a new strategy, to hit with greater ferocity. There is wisdom in Pakistani military plan to soften the insurgents by air action, plug their supply lines, create local Lashkar’s to erode Taliban unity and capability, try to to dissuade teenagers from Taliban machinations at brainwashing and useing young Pushtun’s as gun-fodder for suicide bombings. It is hoped that the plan for military operations in rugged Waiziristan has taken into account that the hardy Taliban fighters will have the advantage that the mountanious terrain offers. Besides blockading their supply lines, it is important to identify their funds and gun suppliers, and to eliminate them.

Hakimullah Mehsud will follow his dead mentor’s policies of death, destruction, arson, extortion and kidnapping. It is too early to asses his capability, acumen and desire to expand the TTP movement by bringing other militant groups into its fold? With the Pakistani government determined to wipe out militancy and terrorism, and the armed forces prepared and motivated to annihilate insurgent terrorists, Hakimullah Mehsud and his cohorts must not be given time to recuperate, reorganize and rearm. The brutal bands of criminals hiding in caves in Waziristan,and other FATA Agencies must be brought to justice as soon as possible.

Some media men and “human right pundits”, and television journalists who had traveled to Hakimullah’s -controlled part of the Orakzai tribal agency in November last year, appear to have a soft corner for the new TTP leader. He is being introduced as the ‘young turk’ whose ” views on religion and politics and his ambition to take the terrorist movement beyond FATA to mainland Pakistan, is plausible. One journalist described,” that his cold looks and wry smile left little doubt that he may not think twice before killing anyone.” He has chopped more heads of Pakistani security personnel than any other terrorist including Maulvi Fazalullah.”Yet he was intelligent enough to grasp the significance and power of the media and tried to make the maximum of the presence of Pakistani television teams to express his views on issues ranging from the situation in Afghanistan, to TTP’s links with Mullah Omar and his Taliban movement, to Pakistan’s political scene, particularly his views about the Awami National Party. It was not difficult to see how much he hated the ANP.” He is an enemy of Pakistani people, must be treated as such by the media. Having slit throats of defenseless young soldiers and civilians, Hakimullah wants to present himself as a modern man. He knows a lot about weapons, munitions, explosives, guns and machines. So, while at one point he sought the camera men’s indulgence while showing off by speeding around in a Humvee that his men had captured during a raid on a convoy of American vehicles in the Khyber Agency, an hour later he invited the journalists to participate in a gun-shooting competition. The journalists were impressed. Orakzai Agency like North and South Waziristan are safe heavens for the Taliban, and the more time Hakimullah Mehsud gets to reinforce, harder it will be to dislodge the Taliban from the difficult terrain of North and South Waziristan.
Pakistani and foreign media are ‘image-building ’ Hakimullah Mehsud as a future leader of the Tehrik Taliban Pakistan. Hakimullah Mehsud has started spreading his wings. Baitullah Mehsud had given him charge of three tribal agencies. He had gained a foothold in Orakzai Agency, was involved in supporting the local Taliban in Kurram to kill the Shia citizens, and was making his presence felt in Khyber. The military action against insurgents in Bara-Khyber Agency, must be followed by intelligence assessments of Taliban capabilities, i.e.strength and deployment in the above four agencies and intentions. He is more ambitious than his predecessor who mostly remained confined to South Waziristan, Hakimullah explained to the Pakistani correspondents his expansionist designs. “If the Pakistan government continues with its policy of following American diktat, (some day) we can even try to capture Peshawar, Hangu and even Islamabad, we have the strength to do it”, he said. This threat must be taken seriously. Hakimullah is loyal to Mullah Omar and openly praised the Al-Qaeda, which seemingly funds the TTP. “We are Al Qaeda’s friends as both us the Taliban and the Arab fighters have shown our allegiance to Amir-ul-Momineen Mullah Omar of Afghanistan, but there is no Al Qaeda in South Waziristan.”
Hakimullah’s nomination as the new TTP chief would be worrisome for Pakistani authorities, but more so for the NWFP government. Hakimullah is not a traditional mullah, as he does not have a proper degree from a religious school. However, he knows how to exploit Pakhtuns’ religious as well as nationalist sentiments. “We do not give two hoots to Awami National Party’s tirade against Taliban,” Hakimullah had said in the interview. “We can have an agreement with all the political parties but not with ANP,” he said. While ridiculing the ANP in his typical style, Hakimullah was unable to hide his desire to expand the scope of his activities by claiming that once the ANP used to say that like them the Taliban too were Pakhtuns, but the way the situation was developing the ANP might soon take back its claim to be representatives of the Pakhtuns” says Hakimullah. Hakimullah Mehsud now heads the powerful Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan. He is ambitions, and will try to weld the fourteen groups of the Taliban under the flag of a more united Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan. The more time he gets may mean more trouble for the Pakistani authorities, and certainly for the ANP-led government in the NWFP.

Editor’s Note: These hoards may call themselves Taliban but are in fact War Lords, Smugglers and Crimminals. My information is that the Afghan taliban have distanced themselves from these terrorists. As for Hakim Ullah, he is a born militant and will be very difficult to tame.

AIR MARSHAL (Retd) AYAZ AHMED KHAN

Attacks, atrocities and discriminations of Christians have been on the increase since 1980. There have been hundreds of attacks against the Christian community; including attacks on Churches and Mission Schools. Some are reported and some do not get to the press. In most cases the police avoid. On December 19, 2006, a drunken mob high on drugs attacked a Christian congregation at the Church of Nazerene in Lahore. This attack and earlier and later attacks revealed prejudice and intolerance of the majority and the woefully inadequate security of Churches during religious congregations. Since July 2009, three major anti-Christian atrocities occurred. • On July 04, 2009 a mob attacked one hundred Christian houses in Bhamani village near Lahore with petrol bombs. The mob assaulted women, throwing acid on some. A young girl who escaped naked from an inferno became the target of acid attack. She tried to commit suicide. Police visited the village but did not register any FIR (report) against the criminals identified by the villagers. • During the first week of August 2009, in two gruesome assaults on Christian villages, large numbers of Christian men, women and children were killed, and their houses and shops were set on fire and destroyed. A village near Gojra was attacked by a frenzied mob, seven Christians were killed, several injured, one hundred houses and shops were torched. • In a similar mob attack on a Christian village near Kasur, several people were hacked to death, and dozens were beaten mercilessly. Christian properties were torched. Christian leaders in UK requested the authorities to investigate, and repeal the draconian blasphemy laws, which are the pretext for most of the mob carnage against the Christian community. Instituted into law by President Zia-ul-Haq, the Blasphemy Ordnance has been grossly misused to settle scores with the peaceful Christian minority, which constitutes only two percent of the population. There is an urgent need to protect Christian men, women and children form violence and atrocities, and propaganda and prejudice being fuelled by fanatic clerics, and anti-Christian groups. There is an urgent need to control and educate the brain washed bigots, who take the law into their own hands, and make us feel that we are living in a lawless jungle. On Tuesday 04 August 2009 the Archbishop of Canterbury, Dr Rowan Williams, made the following statement regarding the violence against Christians in Pakistan: “The recent atrocities against Christians in Pakistan will sear the imaginations of countless people of all faiths throughout the world. As the minister of law in the Punjab has already said, such actions are not the work of true Muslims: they are an abuse of real faith and an injury to its reputation as well as an outrage against common humanity, and deserve forthright condemnation. Christians in Pakistan are a small and vulnerable minority, generally with little political or economic power. They are disproportionately affected by the draconian laws against blasphemy, which in recent years have frequently been abused in order to settle local and personal grievances. They need to be assured of their dignity and liberty as citizens of a just and peaceful society. Their good, their security, is part of the good of the whole Pakistani nation. Those of us who love Pakistan and its people,, whatever their faith, feel that the whole country is injured and diminished by the violence that has occurred. I appeal to the Government of Pakistan to spare no efforts, not only in seeing that justice is done in the wake of these terrible events, but also in continuing to build a society in which all faiths are honoured and in which the most vulnerable can be assured of the protection of the law and the respect of their fellow-citizens.” This statement is an appeal to the conscience of Pakistani men and women, to do whatever they can to protect our Christian brothers and sisters. The Pakistani media is requested to play its role in assuring he safety and security of the peaceful Christian community, whose loyalty in peace and war has been above board. Millions of Pakistani’s feel deeply grieved at the recurring violence and atrocities against our Christian brothers and sisters, who are a deprived minority, and are living in fear in their own country. They constitute a small peaceful minority, only two percent of the population, and have tried to serve Pakistan as best as they can. Violence and atrocities against the small Christian community on the pretext of blasphemy by mobs led by fanatics has occurred too often, and has to be stopped. Pakistan witnessed a gruesome bloodbath of Muslims, Hindus and Sikhs on its birth, i.e. during the partition of the sub-continent. A major lesson to be learnt from the Hindu-Muslim-Sikh slaughter was religious tolerance, mercy and forgiveness. Unfortunately many amongst us remain prejudiced and intolerant towards other faiths and beliefs and take law into our hands, without due investigation. We refuse to listen to others point of view, and our eyes become blood shot by rumours. The Pakistani Christian’s contributions to the educational and social progress of the Pakistani nation are un-matched. Christian Missionary schools and colleges have imparted quality education, which has immensely benefited the country. Millions of Pakistani boys and girls are proud students of Pakistan’s finest schools and colleges, run by dedicated Fathers and Mothers i.e. missionary teachers across the country, in villages, towns and big cities. Hadow Memorial High School in Srinagar Kashmir, later named Tyndal Biscoe College taught its students to show mercy and goodness to fellowmen, as well as to animals and birds. As a little boy I brought an injured crow, a baby sparrow and an injured pup to the school, and was rewarded with a hug by the teacher, which I have never forgotten. Such examples should be emulated by all schools and Madaris to create compassion, mercy and love for the weak. In hundreds of Christian hospitals across Pakistan, including Eye Hospitals in far flung towns, millions of Pakistani, men, women and children have been treated for free since over sixty years. Instead of being obliged and grateful to the Christians of Pakistan, the criminal minded fanatics among us have been attacking Christian villages, killing and injuring innocent Christian men, women and children, and bombing and burning their houses, schools and places of worship. We should be ashamed of ourselves for not stopping the frequent carnage against the unarmed and peaceful Christians of Pakistan. It is the collective responsibility of the Pakistani people and government not only to protect the Pakistani Christians, who are a national asset, but to provide them with guaranteed safety and security to live and prosper in Pakistan, that they have chosen as their home.

Aisha F Sarwari August 7, 2009

Prof. Ayaz Ahmad Khan recounts the horrors of his son’s death
Capt. Jonaid Khan: Special Services Group in the Pakistan army was born in Quetta in 1983, with his primary education in Ankara, where his father Prof. Ayaz Ahmad Khan was stationed on deputation in the Pakistan Mission, Ankara. He was abducted by Taliban on April 19, 2009 and said to be martyred onMay 10th 2009.

I met Prof. Ayaz Ahmad Khan at Saint Mary’s College in Rawalpindi. He was sitting in a modest office, inquiring about costs he had to approve for the college which is run for those students who fall through the cracks. This was 100km from where his son, Capt. Jonaid Khan, died 2 months ago, in Swat.

His kind green eyes seemed like he was accustomed to the often misplaced bravado and valorous praise that visitors greet him with since his son was killed in combat fighting with Taliban. Misplaced, because, Capt. Jonaid died in extraordinary circumstances that require not the commemorative tone of a shaheed cleared for the pearly gates of heaven, but with simple silence, shock and disgust at the barbarity that he faced in his last hours. It is incredibly impossible to maintain confidence when you are meeting a man who lost his son at the hands of the Taliban, whose son was, according to the Pakistan Army, was beheaded.

I could have said something: “I came to pay my condolences. I am sorry for your terrible loss.” But I couldn’t and instead we began chatting about Turkey, where he was posted for years. He talked about how Pakistanis were considered blood relatives of the Turks, and how the major difference between Turkey and Pakistan was that Turkey was never colonized and how people in Ankara with whom he worked with tried to convince him to stay in Turkey. There was a deep sadness in his anecdotes, like there is a dam of emotions held back with concrete and fierce pride. Prof. Ayaz was a proud Pakistani Pashtoon, a Yousef-Zai Pashtoon and it was not hard to imagine the dignity with which he was fighting this battle between pain and sanity.

Eventually he said, “I should have stayed back, maybe then, I could have saved my son.” He smiled sadly as he said that.

Only in times of great trauma does one realize that life is short, and the meaning comes from the relationships we hold, between parent and child, and most importantly between nations and citizens.

Although we can interpret the brutal beheading of an SSG Commando and a number of others by Taliban, as an act of war, and within the rules of war, it was a vengeful strike back by the enemy on an army that once fed it and nurtured it with American aid. A more introspective analysis may perhaps reveal that the nation has failed to protect its most loyal citizen — a commando.

The failure is not abstract – Any country’s armed forced are designed to send their best and bravest in harm’s way – but failure in the sense that on one hand the country is protecting its dynastic political kings at the top in the name of democracy, and on the other hand barbaric thugs equipped with medieval ruthlessness from Arab and Central Asian war techniques hound Pakistan’s northern borders like they own those lands. Under a new cyber law, it is criminal to send any derogatory messages against President, Asif Ali Zardari electronically, leading up to 16 years in prison. The survailance needed to put this law into action is astounding, proving that it is far more imortant for the current adminstration to protect a public figure’s already tainted reputation than it is to locate an abducted Army officer fighting for his country.

If a nation is only as strong as its army and any constitution’s basis is undoubtedly on a strong and equipped army then the question arises: Is the government effectively focusing on winning this war in Swat with minimal loss of men?

On April 19, 2009, Capt. Jonaid along with 3 others was on a surveillance mission in Swat, when the Taliban, led by Maulana Fazlullah, abducted them in the cagey mountains, to use as bargaining chip against key Taliban Mujahidin that the Pakistan Army had taken as prisoners.

What is strange is that Prof. Ayaz continued to receive phone calls from his son after his abduction.

“I was concerned about Jonaid when I didn’t hear from him, and contacted his officers who assured me he was safe and in a location in the Swat Mountains that didn’t have communication signals, but when I heard from Jonaid a few days later, I had no reason to be alarmed.”

Partly to protect his mission and partly to be positive with his family, Capt. Jonaid spent hours talking to his mother about his upcoming wedding and the arrangements needed. These calls continued for a few more days until they stopped. Soon after the Pakistan Army contacted Prof. Ayaz and told him that they suspect Capt. Jonaid was abducted by the Taliban, and that they are hopeful that they’ll learn his whereabouts soon.

Upset at being left in the dark for so long after the army knew, Prof. Ayaz probed on his own as well as provided helpful details to the Pakistan Army. When he called back from the various numbers Capt. Jonaid used, and few days later after the abduction, a Taliban called and asked to talk with Jonaid’s father about his son who has been with them.

“What he said after that was so insulting that I broke down. It was terrible; he insulted me, and the Pakistan Army. He cursed at me for sending my son to fight Muslims and finally demanded an explanation from me about why my son doesn’t know how to speak good Pushto…I told him, son, I don’t know, I never really saw the need, we knew the languages we required to communicate,” narrated Prof. Ayaz in a calm, descriptive voice.

The Taliban asked: “What kind of father are you? You don’t even know what your son is doing here?”

“I could answer that, but you won’t like my answer, and you have my son at your mercy, how can you expect me to honestly respond?” Prof. Ayaz said.

At the Taliban’s insistence, Prof. Ayaz asked him a question in response to his: “Do your parents know what you’re doing right now, son, do they know you are kidnapping and beheading and killing fellow Muslims?”

Not hardened to the extent that Prof. Ayaz expected, the Taliban Mujahidin was speechless for a few seconds and then engaged in softened conversation, referring to him as “Uncle,” and at the end asked what can he do for him. Prof. Ayaz asked to release the persons they have abducted. The Taliban said he can’t do that. However, he did promise to protect Capt. Jonaid as long as he lived.

Prof. Ayaz may be a victim of the psychology of all parents who lose their sons without identifying them after death. He may be reacting to the grief by denying that Jonaid is dead, because he has not seen the coffin of his son and is still in a state of illusion.

I thought of this as I observed Prof. Ayaz tell me this tragic series of events. He looked out the window and drew a breath of conviction and said, “I am still looking.”

I thanked him for his time, and his story. What else could I say?

If Capt. Jonaid and his team were bait for Maulana Fazlullah, the Taliban faction leader, linked with Al Qaida is still alive and well, according to the national press. Maulana Fazlullah has enjoyed many other privileges too: He is more commonly known as the FM Mullah, for his ability to run and preach anarchy against Pakistan over the country’s own air waves without any restrictions from the government. This went on indefinitely, as long as he recruited enough men to stage this insurgency in Swat. He is also the son-in-law of Sufi Muhammad, the group’s leader. The government officially had a pact with Sufi Muhammad early in the year so he could officially establish an Islamic state in Swat, in return for clumsy peace.

On July 27, 2009, the Urdu Jang reported said that Sufi Muhammad was taken into custody at Sethi Town, Peshawar on Sunday July 26 instant and will be prosecuted for the abduction of 3 (not 4) Pakistan Army officers. NWFP Information Minister Main Iftikhar Hussain confirmed the TNSM chief’s arrest and has said the group, Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Muhammadi (TNSM) and its past conduct will be “investigated.” Sufi Muhammad’s arrest is not as relevant and the militant’s high command is still said to be intact.

Despite the much lauded operation in Swat where the Pakistan Army achieved with creativity and nerve what even other armies better equipped could not, there should still be an accountability of how far we are from ending this war which was started in the name of a US-Backed Central Asian oil pipeline. Are we headed towards a war strategy that is sustainable, or one that has unmanageable reactionary elements as its side effects, punishing the very people who are its most idealistic fighters and who believe in Pakistan?

The games go on, and yet many fathers won’t stop waiting for their sons to return home this Eid. Prof. Ayaz reminded me of Rudyard Kipling’s, poem, My Boy Jack, after his own son went missing in the Battle of Loos, during World War I.

My Boy Jack (1915)
by Rudyard Kipling

“Have you news of my boy Jack?”
Not this tide.
“When d’you think that he’ll come back?”
Not with this wind blowing, and this tide.

“Has any one else had word of him?”
Not this tide.
For what is sunk will hardly swim,
Not with this wind blowing, and this tide.

“Oh, dear, what comfort can I find?”
None this tide,
Nor any tide,
Except he did not shame his kind —
Not even with that wind blowing, and that tide.

Then hold your head up all the more,
This tide,
And every tide;
Because he was the son you bore,
And gave to that wind blowing and that tide!

Ahmed Quraishi.com

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