INSIGHT AND FORESIGHT

January 2, 2009

HOW THE INDO PAK CONFLICT WILL BE FOUGHT IN AFGHANISTAN

Filed under: Uncategorized — sharafs @ 11:38 am

A. H. Amin

ORIGINAL MAP DRAWN ABSOLUTE FREE HAND BY A.H AMIN

The Indo Pak conflict is being fought in Afghanistan since 1992.Initial the Hizb e Islami of Hekmatyar was the Pakistani proxy.Later on the Taliban were replaced as the Pakistani proxy and the Northern Alliance as the Indian-Russian-Iranian proxy. After 2001 the Northern Alliance became a US proxy.

It appears now that the USA/NAT0 cannot fight the Afghan war alone. Any US withdrawal would lead to a Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan which is seen as not suitable in USA,India,Russia,Iran and even China‘s interest.

The Indians have made a very serious offer of one corps HQ, four divisions, and 30 RR Battalions for Afghanistan, to the Americans, with Lt. Gen Bikram Singh as force commander (HQ III or XXI Corps, 4, 6, 23, and 36 Divs).

Similarly the Russians have motorised forces available for possible deployment in North Afghanistan in case the USA decides to withdraw from Afghanistan.

The simple rationale of the conflict is the fact that a direct Indo Pak war because of the nuclear deterrent is no longer possible. Afghanistan is idle for Indians in order to wage a Bangladesh like war with the Indian proxies in Pakistan being the Baloch and the anti Pakistan Pashtun tribal elements.

Seen in this context the future war which is already ongoing between India and Pakistan will be fought in the backwaters.

A Hypothetical Deployment of Indian troops in Afghanistan

A Hypothetical Deployment of Indian troops in Afghanistan

Possible Indian Deployment after US Withdrawl

deployment

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2 Comments »

  1. Agha Amin is a retired army officer who voluntarily left military service. I have had the honor to be one of his instructors in the School of Infantry and Tactics when he was a subaltern. He is blessed with a very analytical mind equally supported by his ability to read and research. He has remained an invaluable source of information to me on Afghanistan.

    His article is a hypothetical conflict scenario, to which I already alluded during my views on Crises Cell Geo. Not to mention, that Agha was of great assistance in preparing me for this talk show. I agree with him that Southern ie Pashtun Afghanistan will be resigned to BURN OUT by destructive forces with a domino effect in FATA and NWFP-Balochistan in that order. Please also link it with my article below this one.
    Simon

    Comment by sharafs — January 2, 2009 @ 12:39 pm

  2. I have another map to share here.

    Take a look at this 1939 Tata Airline Route map. Tata Airline now has become Air-India, but if you look at the top left of the map which shows the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, the situation is till the same. 70 years! and we have not seen a change here. Something to consider when planning a surge.

    Things have not changed for 70 years.

    Comment by mumbaikar — January 2, 2009 @ 9:45 pm


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