INSIGHT AND FORESIGHT

August 29, 2010

DROWNED IN RIVERS OF INCOMPETENCE & GREED

Filed under: Uncategorized — sharafs @ 9:50 am

Brigadier Samson Simon Sharaf

The destruction caused by the massive flooding from Gilgit-Chitral to Thatta is a tale of destruction wreaked by nature, misery, incompetence and massive corruption. In most places, devastation was avoidable had the water managers of Pakistan not tinkered with nature in exchange for ill gotten wealth, insensitivity to people’s welfare and political mileage.

As I wrote in ‘Drowned in Rivers with no Water’, 70%  of Pakistan’s external debt has been consumed in the Water Management Sector with 60% of it going away in incompetent feasibility studies by foreign experts.  The net result is that either there is no water or too much of it. Drainage, flood protection bunds, dredging and lining of canal schemes designed to control the fury of rivers have all failed because of shady and ghost civil works. Dredging though an annual budgetary feature was never implemented in letter and spirit neither the height of bunds and shoring through stone and concrete works ever carried out on the supposedly completed projects.

Despite month long floods, administrative reactions in lower reaches of Indus are still slow, inefficient and malafide. The biggest manifestation of this inefficiency, incompetence and vested management is the new course of River Indus to the north. The inundation of the entire productive and fertile plains of Southern Balochistan will neither seep nor have an exit. As a result, lakes will be created on the southern slopes of the Kirthar range that shall hang like a daemon on the towns of Shadadkot, Qambar etc. The flood will continue to flow into this area till the fatal bunds breached on the northern side of Indus are not plugged or the flood waters do not run out.

River Indus and its tributaries have always had a history of fury obliterating civilizations and creating new ones.  The lowest depressions of this massive river system still lie in South Eastern Pakistan from Bahawalnagar to Nagar Parkar. This contour of the land also indicates the old course of the lost Nara River called the great Nara depression itself created by the natural forces of earthquakes, tsunamis and flooding.

It was not very long ago that Brigadier Ahsan Tiwana, a nature loving agriculturist had gone from pillar to post suggesting that the extra outflow of Rivers Indus, Jehlum and Chenab should in any emergency be diverted towards this great depression thereby providing water for agriculture, charging of aquifers and reclaiming lands of the Choolistan and Nara Deserts. The wisdom of his proposal is now vindicated. Much of the water could have been diverted to these areas especially when Ali Wan Bund had earlier been made just for diverting water to this untamed desert. As a result the main desert remains dry because its upper fringes irrigated by the canal systems owned by political elites had to be protected. But there is still a heavier cost to be paid by the cities of Kotri, Thatta, Hyderabad and Badin for this act tantamount to criminal intent and complicity to incompetence and vested interests.

25% of Pakistan’s plains including heartland are flooded, infrastructure and cash crops destroyed and over 30% people mostly poor have to start life from scratch after the water has receded. Once the water goes away, the land revenue department will have a field day delineating boundaries and open gateways to massive corruption and bloody feuds. The over centralized response (in reaction to corruption at lower tiers) of NDMA and ERRA-like reconstruction and disaster management organizations and legal issues will slow resettlements.

Many people are now comparing the indigenous national and international response of the 2005 earthquake to these floods. There are three simple explanations for the lack of it.

First, more than 40% of Pakistan’s population has been directly or indirectly affected. Many of the people who responded in 2005 are either victims of this disaster or are helping relatives and friends who are. We are now talking of the entire KPK minus Peshawar, Mardan and Kohat, at least 11 districts of Punjab, 11 of Sindh, over 7 of Balochistan and entire Gilgit-Baltistan. With over 50 million population affected, the scale is just too big for such a response.

Secondly, international donors have been slow to react. They fear that like 2005, much of the aid will fall into the wrong hands. Aid workers are reluctant to travel due to security reasons as the entire Southern Punjab and Northern Sindh has been portrayed as a hotbed of Talibanisation. In fact there is vested interest that would hope that the flood situation breaks up Pakistan.

Thirdly, a country that had the world’s highest Charity to GDP ratio is at a contradiction within itself. They are reluctant to trust their charities in the hands of political and bureaucratic elites that are corrupt and part of the problem.  This trust deficit is the biggest cause of delayed national mobilization. People either go and do something directly or are waiting for a GODOT to take charge.

But there are many other scars that will be left on the political and development fabric of Pakistan.

First, and of immediate nature is the misery caused to the fertile plains of Balochistan. Soon the rising poverty, absence of governance and resettlement issues will give rise to crime and centrifugal forces. Much of the area will for times to come become permanent lakes and ponds and a grim reminder of the manipulation of flows by political elites.  Ironically, this is also the part of Balochistan that has stood like a rock against forces of secession. Poverty may breed crime at the societal level but one step up, it also breeds sub nationalism.

Secondly, government’s insensitivity to Atabad Disaster and landslide phenomena since 2002 is a cause of concern. No teams of geologists and hydrologist have been created to study these unprecedented phenomena that have virtually cut off vast areas of Pakistan as also land routes to China.

The third issue relates to dredging of the dams. Warsak has outlived its life and Tarbela is badly silted. It is hoped that these heavy flows may have carried away some of the embedded silt. But more than building new controversial dams, there is a need to study latest technologies and evolve a method to dredge and reclaim these dams not only on continuous basis but also taking advantage of high peak floods and water velocities.

Fourthly, would Kalabagh have averted this disaster? Considering that the dam will be down of KPK that faced the joint brunt of Kabul, Panjkora, Chitral and Swat Rivers the answer is no. If anything, it could have prevented some damages downstream at the cost of submerging Nowshera, Kohat, Chaarsada and some areas of Swabi. So what is the logic of making a dam that inundates the major cities and economic hubs of KPK? Maybe the geologists, hydrologists and engineers consider the option of a smaller storage reservoir at Kalabagh by reducing the height of the dam.

Fifthly, considering that Kohistan and Diamer are beset with mysterious land slide phenomena, very young and loose rock structure and in proximity of major fault lines, would it be prudent to construct Basha at all? With a 300M vertical wall hanging over Tarbela, KKH realigned and memories of Bunji and Atabad still alive, would it be sensible to rush for a Basha that has its own destruction writ large.

All these are very crucial issues at a time when the nation waits for a GODOT. What Mr. Altaf Hussain and Imran Khan are saying is a true reflection of the feelings of majority Pakistanis.

Jacobabad and Southern Balochistan

Notice how a new course of River Indus has been artificially created in an area that has no drainage. We are likely to see lakes and new ponds in some of the most fertile areas of Balochistan. This water will continue to pour in till River Indus does not recede.

August 15, 2010

PAKISTAN US RELATIONS: THE LONG WAR

Filed under: Uncategorized — sharafs @ 11:32 am

Brigadier (R) Samson Simon Sharaf

A few days back, I had the occasion to meet Professor Walter Russell Mead a US scholar and opinion maker on a fact finding mission to Pakistan.  I met him after he had already interacted with some think tanks and important people from Pakistan; some critical and others apologists.

Knowing that he is the Henry A. Kissinger senior fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and also linked to the evangelical church, I was particularly keen to find out how the religious right affected the US policy making.  If he is to be believed, it actually does; but I doubt his contention in view of the Kennon Telegram and Tonkin Reports. In my and many respected opinions, it is the Military-Industrial Complex and its think tanks that beef up a case.

As it turned out, his chief intellectual interests involves the rise and development of a liberal, capitalist world order based on the economic, societal, and military power of the United States and its closest allies prominently UK. He also theorises to seek a stable Southern Asia (South, East and Central) with India playing the major role from East Africa to Malacca, albeit containing the rise of China. During discussions, it became amply clear that US occupation of Afghanistan is a mere stepping stone for greater geo political designs in what may turn out in his own words to be a Long War.

He was of the view that Pakistan’s security perspective framed around a hostile and over bearing India was faulty and in conflict with the US perspective of a stable and prosperous Asia led by India. He suggested that Pakistan ought to forget all issues with India and instead focus on a supportive role in the region with India in the lead and become a prosperous country, rather then be doomed economically as it presently is.

But this view is not new to Pakistanis. I recall having met Michel Kreppon of the Henry Stimson Centre in 1995 and 2001 advocating risk reduction and confidence building measures with India.  I asked him that if Pakistan was to agree to all US suggestions, would USA guarantee Kashmiri people their freedom. He was quite for some time and then said No. The same can also be said of Ex President Clinton’s visit to Pakistan to deliver a sermon to the nation besieged by military dictatorships, inept politicians and Harvard trained bureaucracy. He refused to intervene on behalf of the Kashmiri people.

Ashley Tellis once wrote that India and Pakistan exist on the extremes of divides and went on to qualify his thesis with historic predispositions and facts. Now a naturalised American and an expert advisor on the region, he qualifies India as a peace loving and caring country to lead Asia and chooses to forget his thesis that propelled him to fame. In one capacity or the other, he remains a bigwig of the region and moulds opinions. So when I read and hear one American opinion and policy maker after another being particularly dismissive of Pakistan and its abilities, I wonder what keeps them thinking in such a manner. Are their pre emptive policies really a solution or an isolationist syndrome built around oceanic insulation and immense military power?

One, Pakistan has not been able to produce the likes of Tellis and Khalilzad, who have managed to penetrate the core of policy makers and shaping opinions. Our scholars and expats of ability invariably choose to adapt to the perspectives of their adopted land and become apologists. They hardly frame opinions. Pakistan’s lobbyists, though highly paid are ineffective.

Secondly, US-Pakistan relations have surged intermittently during times of so called strategic alliances. If Ayub Khan’s letter to a US Admiral in 1955 that spam the cyberspace nowadays is to be taken as a measure, not much has changes since. Each time, Pakistan has acted as a US dependency and then exercised its Flexible Conscience on selective basis. As a reward, USA has been compliant in looking the other way while Pakistan shored its security against India. But this time it is different. While Pakistan continues to do the donkey’s work, it gets no respite and leverage.

As I gathered from the meeting and many opinionated research papers from USA, the issue of Afghanistan is fast becoming peripheral. USA will not withdraw from Afghanistan nor will the pressure on Pakistan from across the Durand Line and world over abate. This confirms earlier circumspection about US objectives in Afghanistan not to arrest OBL and dismantle Al Qaeda, but to occupy the pivot of three Asias for geo strategic gains and world domination. Though the apparent logic and hindrance in this policy may be Pakistan’s fixation with India, it actually boils down to the growing strategic partnership between Pakistan and China. This is what makes the present crises A LONG WAR.

As a face saving threat, it appears that this reasoning spares USA the indignity of another Vietnam type retreat. It shifts the perspective to a global game of US led economic domination that will make another ideology collapse. “You see, it was ultimately the economics that won the war against a communist ideology. Pakistan’s competition with India in asymmetrical and Pakistan will soon collapse economically”, is what Dr. Mead was quick to assert. Built on Paul Kennedy’s thesis of The Rise and Fall of Great Empires, USA has time on its side for things to happen. For Pakistan, it is the final phase of the battle for its integrity in face of a dysfunctional economy that gives rise to internal conflicts.

In my meeting with the Foreign Minister Mr. Shah Mehmood Qureshi on Monday last, I mostly remained a silent listener. The only point I made was that if Pakistan was indeed so vulnerable, why the govermnet was allowing Pakistan’s economy to collapse so easily. He gave no answer; but this is a subject I amply dilated in a series of five articles I wrote in NATION on economic manipulation.

My parting words to Dr. Mead were that Pakistan or no Pakistan, in the final analysis, it is the people of the region who will win. I asked him to read the Forgotten Social Dimension of Strategy by Michel Howard and take a fresh look at his thesis of Asian domination.

As for Pakistan, we need to make a blessing out of the current flooding tragedy and not waste a penny of the aid that comes Pakistan’s way to hedge our flagging rupee and jump start a reconstruction program that actually benefits the common man and not off shore dollar accounts. This reconstruction program unlike the ERRA should set the pace for healthy development activity built around domestic industries and expertise to boost local economies. Concurrently, the entire country should gear towards a national austerity program.

http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Opinions/Columns/15-Aug-2010/PakUS-relations-the-long-war

August 1, 2010

THE ELUSIVE PEACE: A WAR OF ERROR

Filed under: Uncategorized — sharafs @ 5:27 am


If it is in the Governments interest to extend the tenure of COAS for the sake of WOT, then it is also in Pakistan’s interest that the tenure of CJCSC be extended. After all, he exercises operational control over Pakistan’s nuclear forces, the objective of the entire mayhem

Brigadier (R) Samson Simon Sharaf

Pakistan is strategically located on the crossroads of Central, West and South Asia. This position is enviable but fraught with instability. From 1947 to 1975, Pakistan had to contend with a hostile Afghanistan to the North and a declared enemy to the East.

In quest for a new Pakistan, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto rallied the Muslim nations under an Islamic summit and was one of the architects of the Oil Embargo. In 1974, he laid the foundations of Pakistan’s nuclear programme. From 1973-75, he created the nucleus of Afghan student resistance to Sardar Daud and forced him into negotiations. In 1977, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto was scheduled to sign an already drafted and agreed agreement with Sardar Daud on the Durand Line. Lamentably, he was over thrown through a military coup, hanged and made a lesson of. His other two allies in King Faisal and Shah of Iran met somewhat similar ends. All three paid the price for disturbing the International Equilibrium of the Great Game.

As events prove, one of the most compelling reason for Pakistan to participate in the US sponsored mock Jihad was legitimacy for a military dictatorship and elimination of  a pro Soviet-India government in Kabul. The vanguard of resistance was provided by the Afghan resistance trained in Bhutto’s days. With the Soviets driven out, USA withdrew with a pro Soviet-India regime still in place. What followed was anarchy created by warlords, diverse mujahidin groups and rise of Taliban all with active interventions from the intelligence agencies of Pakistan, Saudia Arabia, Britain and USA.

In 1996, Benazir Bhutto tried to rewrite her father’s script. During negotiations led by Nasser Ullah Babar, Taliban agreed to moderating themselves and converting Afghanistan into a federation with a power sharing formula. The atmosphere was so friendly that Babar also flew in an entourage of western diplomat families that went shopping in Kandahar and Mazar. Benazir was unceremoniously removed by President Leghari just a day after the draft agreement had been agreed.

In 2002, it was again with Benazir’s intervention that the Taliban agreed to make a Lockerberie out of Usama Bin Laden and hand him over to a neutral Muslim country for trial by a Qazi Court. USA dissented and walked out of negotiations that could have spared the world this War on Terror. Seymour Hersh speculated her to be a victim of special assassination squads.

As I wrote earlier, 9/11 was an opportunity for an otherwise besieged General Musharraf to get the Americans off his back and use them to settle the same question. He was misled by Shaukat Aziz who assured scores of billions of dollars pouring into Pakistan. The short sightedness of this policy became obvious. The entire country including military has been drawn into a most hostile environment where states, agencies and maze of non state actors compete for influence.

Recently, Pakistan’s direct negotiations led by the Military/ISI with Karzai and a nod from McCrystal are now history. For the time being, Taliban with their heads high are unwelcome. Pakistan was prematurely led to play its last cards.

The recent rush of defence and foreign office diplomacy in South Asia and Afghanistan, statements made by Clinton, Holbrooke, Mullen and Cameron suggest a renewed pressure on Pakistan in which India is being co-opted as an important player.  Even Karzai’s tone has changed. Military despatches, sitreps and intreps leaked through WIKILEAKs are in tandem with this policy.  The entire western media on a jungle feast is out to discredit and disgrace the military and ISI which has been implicated only in 30 out of 92,000 reports along with a disclaimer about authenticity.

The target is Pakistan Army and ISI accused of playing a double game, assisting Taliban against coalition forces and creating a new terror network with the help of LeT. This also implies that Pakistan Army continues to deliberately and consciously play a double game against its field formations by engaging them in stage managed and fake encounters; a preposition being made to Pakistani media to take on. This propaganda ignores the fact that Pakistan’s armed forces have suffered the highest toll of casualties in this war.

There have been three consistencies in all the events since 1974. First, Pakistan is repeatedly denied to secure its north western frontier, secondly, to Pakistan’s chagrin; India has always been allowed an influence in Afghanistan by USA and thirdly, peace in the region has been elusive.

However these consistencies may not lead to the logical because the ELUSIVENESS may itself be a recipe for a bigger disaster in making that can swirl either way.

The recent diplomatic offensive indicates that in the next few months, the violence in the region will reach new levels including strikes deep inside Pakistan. If empiricism leads to prediction, then it also points to another elusive summit overseeing valleys full of snakes, in which Pakistan dangerously treads.

This makes the positive impacts of the extension of Gen Ashfaq Pervez Kayani questionable.

Even western analysts like Anatol Lieven agree that India is a potentially disastrous liability for Afghan policy with limited direct help in the war on terror. Yet why does the coalition choose the Indian soil to make aspersions on Pakistan?  The answer is straight forward; Afghanistan is the base, Pakistan the target and India the containment front.

So what is it that Pakistan has to give up to become a trusted ally? The answer can be read on the face of every Pakistani; Pashtun connection to Afghanistan, Kashmir and Nuclear.

If these be the objectives, then how are the events likely to unfold?

First, AFPAK also arouses the romantic notion of Pashtun nationalism. There are already suggestions that Afghanistan should be bifurcated on ethnic lines into Pashtun and non Pashtun zones. India is likely to play a big role in the North both in development and defending the pivots for attacks in Pashtun areas. The operations will ultimately spill over into Pakistan. After total burnout, efforts will be made to enliven the romantic notion of Pashtun nationalism and carve a new Pashtun nation. What AFPAK chooses to ignore is that Gujjars comprise 35% of Afghan population have intrinsic links with Pakistan. Some of their best known leaders are Dr. Abdul Qayyum and Maulana M.Younas Khalis of Hizb-e-Islami. In fact both Hizb-e-Islami and Harkat-e- Islami are Gujjar dominated groups.

Secondly, the Government of Pakistan will be forced to launch operations against the Punjabi Taliban.  This will create anarchy in the biggest province of Pakistan which will ultimately be divided into more provinces. The myth of Punjabi domination in bureaucracy and armed forced will be broken.

Thirdly, full fledged operations in Kandhar will be launched spilling the conflict into Balochistan. This will most logically happen when Pakistan’s armed forces are fully stretched in FATA, Khyber Pakhtoon Khawa and Punjab. Karachi will become a hot bed of ethnic and sectarian strife. The secessionist movements in Balochistan will intensify and ultimately a direct corridor to Afghanistan will be crafted.

A weak and discredited Pakistan will then be asked to negotiate on US terms.

In the past many years I have repeatedly and accurately pointed to these dangers, but as events have proved, Pakistan has willingly stepped into partnerships that rather than provide security, compromise it.

If it is in the Governments interest to extend the tenure of COAS for the sake of WOT, then it is also in Pakistan’s interest that the tenure of CJCSC be extended. After all, he exercises operational control over Pakistan’s nuclear forces, the objective of the entire mayhem.

http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Opinions/Columns/01-Aug-2010/The-elusive-peace-a-war-of-error

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