INSIGHT AND FORESIGHT

June 16, 2014

Commentary 1. North Waziristan Operations

Filed under: Uncategorized — sharafs @ 6:29 am

Military Operations against Al Qaeda and their affiliates like some factions of TTP, foreign militants mainly Uzbeks, Chechens, Arabs, Turkmen and Punjabi Taliban have begun. A good number of them had already been airlifted to Iraq and Syria to strengthen ISIS. The time for a final strike against a crumbling redoubt was crucial.

Appears the PMLN government has taken the belated decision as expediency. From their angle, it appeases the army and provides grounds for denying justification to protests by PTI and TUQ. I had unfolded these plans in a mail to leaders on 2 June 2014 and my articles in Nation dated 6 and 13 June 2014. In addition, the events could either eclipse the massive load shedding or result in parallel street agitation that TUQ could exploit. In the worst case, essentials of integrity and common unrest could be a worst case scenario.

Against common belief, the operations have the full backing of Utmanzai Wazir and Dawar tribesmen led by Mirza Haji Sher Mohammad, the grandson of Fakir Ipi. They are not only evicting terrorists but also pointing out targets and aiding civil administration to regain capacity. The army has already secured safe zones and development activity continues in tandem. In my view, bulk of task would be completed before Ramzan.

Cooperation from ISAF-NATO and ANI in Afghanistan will be crucial. Elimination of hideouts in Kunar, Paktia and Paktika as complementary operations is important. Afghan Taliban and most of Haqqani Group are on board. Major propaganda will be from TTP, anti-military lobby and peace doves who will align to call it a war for US dollars etc. The facts are to the contrary.

We need to realise that the force operating in Syria and Iraq comprise bulk of Pakistani militants and mercenaries who have been bankrolled by KSA and Bahrain. Estimates suggest about 7,000 Pakistan origin fighters. The aim is to establish a Salafist order from Syria to Pakistan to sustain the Arab Kingdoms and contain Iran. This entire force is expected to move to Pakistan once their role is over and storm territories. Military planners decided to pre-empt this.  

Pakistan’s major challenge will be urban areas like Karachi, Islamabad, Quetta, Hyderabad, South Punjab, Lahore, Gujranwala, Faisalabad, Jang and Rawalpindi. Militants will attempt to target vulnerable points like military installations, dams, grids, power houses, media houses, industry, ports, communication centres, congregations of other sects/religions, assassinations and abductions. This entails vigilance and ready to fight LEA deployments. Constitutional confines and procedures will be a major hindrance to counter terrorism operations in urban areas. With no federal, provincial and district command centres and hazy counter terrorism directives, synergy will be disrupted. Courts known for their shady record in bringing terrorists to book will be a major hindrance. It is likely that this confusion will be used by the government with enough support to impose a constitutionally sanctioned emergency.

But the development is not likely to end here. Strong nationalist forces could force the exit of the government. This depends on how events unfold.

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1 Comment »

  1. Nice Sharing,

    Comment by Surri jan — June 17, 2014 @ 7:11 am


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