LITANY OF ERRORS

By Samson Simon Sharaf

“There is a tide in the affairs of men. Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune”

Shakespeare in Julius Caesar

Though I would agree with the intentions of others who are writing and talking on the prevailing situation in Pakistan, I may not agree with their conclusions. These are debatable Options or Models on which opinion makers base their analysis, like Sisi, Erdogan, Bangladesh or the Sri Lankan Models. Though these offer some conclusions, they are part of history not relevant to environments in Pakistan.  

I have not written for a while and may appear to be out of groove and rusty. My essays are always researched within the paradigms and never dwell into conspiracy theories. My hypotheses are testable.

The over riding factor in case of Pakistan is its nuclear capability and the instability curves fervently discussed in the West as precursors to de-nuclearization.

Pakistan’s decision makers including the establishment have never got into the groove of statesmanship worthy of a nuclear power. In this series of self-perpetuated crises, all elements and stake holders in Pakistan’s decision-making cycle have to impose super caution about how and where they tread.

Strategy is not restricted to planning and fighting wars. Its most important element is the people of the country and how their motivations and emotive factors are harnessed. It is crucial to maintaining external peace and internal harmony.  

When Karl Von Clausewitz wrote about the Centre of Gravity, he made a particular reference to aspirations of the people. His Trinity encompassed the people, military and government.  

Those were the early days of wars based around Nationalism and in other words, ‘People’s Wars of National Unifications’. Later the evolving perspectives of political economy eclipsed nationalism with trans nationalism and globalism. In strife ridden areas, nationalism in diverse and exploitable forms still prevails.  This is what foreign and domestic actors consider the soft under belly. They have identified it in case of Pakistan and will pursue the course relentlessly. It is up to Pakistanis to deter and defeat it.

Based on the nuclear strikes on Japan, Cold War Pacts and Korean War, the paradigm of armed conflict changed. Sir Michael Eliot Howard in his ‘Forgotten Dimensions of Strategy’ placed the Social Dimension i.e., power of the people, right on top of the pyramid.

Prohibition of direct armed conflict amongst nuclear powers has pushed the conflict to other peripheries that includes economy and civil unrest. This is where Instability and Compellance trajectories come into play. If not deterred, these may become most lethal. Pakistan is a step closer.

In Pakistan’s present unrest and crises, the people of Pakistan with their aspirations have become the Centre of Gravity. Because this notion transcends into hearts and minds, commanders of modern armies need to be cognizant that they command a Citizen’s Army impacted by ever expanding dimensions of media. The exclusive nature of barracks and social isolation have taken many steps backwards.    

With this theoretical background in mind, lets discuss the crises at hand i.e., Regime Change Operation, its dynamics and how its effects National Security.

There is a military tactics axiom. “Any plan that works to perfection must be relentlessly investigated”. Logically, no plan can work as conceived. It must have flexibility for a course change.

If the ultimate objective was Social Contract revolving around well being of the nation, modalities to achieve the same objective can be modified. Inflexibility in execution is recipe for defeat.

But as events manifest, this is not the case. Covid 19 was well handled and thereafter there were two good years of productivity. The good advantage was surrendered to regime change. No narrative can change this perception.

But if the objective was to get rid of a particular individual, his replacement with most questionable individuals raises many questions, ifs and buts in minds of the public.

Data available from times when these individuals were catapulted to elites and their governance statistics do not reflect them as saviors of the nation.  This perception has traction with the people and gravitates them as the Centre of Gravity; something that must not be ignored.

Deal maker politicians have run out of public support as indicated in series of provincial and national bye elections. They are too compromised to challenge Imran Khan on the streets. Their salvation lies in perpetuating a street chaos that ultimately bring people head on with the military.

Planners in London and inheritors of Pakistan People’s Party seem to follow this course. Consequently, they will continue to jack pressure on the military to prevent a positive solution to the crisis.

Dynamics of any ongoing conflict cannot be predicted. Sometimes the best intentions plummet into the dungeons. Even if we accept, it is not Intentional, the byproduct is now the primary product. Dismantling of the State is gaining momentum while the opposition has writ over two major provinces, Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan. It commands public and geographical places. Arshad Sharif’s assassination has added an impetus.

Imran’s popularity for reasons mentioned above is surging and yet, not peaked. What happens when this Long March reaches Rawalpindi from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Punjab.

Why the garrison city of Rawalpindi? Do the barricades and extension of Red Zone leave any option? Who is taking these decisions and why needs head scratching?

There is only one way out of these crises. Respect the aspirations of the people and go for immediate free, fair and transparent elections. Let the party that commands the hearts and minds of the people charter Pakistan’s future.

Biting pride than licking wounds is always the better part of valour.

“The race is not to the swift or the battle to the strong, But time and chance happen to them all”

 Ecclesiastes 9:11

PAKISTAN’S IMPORTED CRISES PART II

SUFFOCATION & ISLOATION

Updated

Curtesy, Pakistan Today

Samson Simon Sharaf

When Shahbaz Sharif in extremely ill-founded political rhetoric called Pakistan a nation of beggars, or when Khawaja Naeem called Pakistan ‘on US ventilators’ little did they realize that in quest of an ill-gotten tuppence, they were bargaining the future of Pakistan.

They have set the ball rolling into an uncontrollable spiral and it is uncertain when it will end. Backed by the complete system, they may survive the time in power, make amendments to hide their fortunes and enjoy the elixir of raw power, but for how long?

At the end of the day, all instruments of regime change may realize that the objective of getting rid of Imran Khan once for forever, (Debatable) was not worth the effort to destabilize the strategic balance of Pakistan attained over decades in the tectonics of geopolitics.

How can removal of one man called arrogant, rigid and swarmed by bad advisers be justified by the misery Pakistan is going through? Or how can the positive economic indices produced by PTI government in past 26 months become cause of scorn?

The house of cards does not last long and the massive domino effect in collapse is bound to cause much more damage to Pakistan than expected.  There is a forest on fire and everything will be consumed by the inferno. When will this horrific reality show end is not known?

Though Pakistan will take a long time to heal these wounds, a resilient nation that it is, it will bounce back stronger. Then will begin the daunting task of rebuilding and setting the strategic orientation on the correct course. Surely a phoenix will rise from the ashes but when?

Fragmentation is already at an extreme and no amount of electoral frauds can undo it.

Economy is in a steep nose dive. It may get some relief due to remittance from abroad and exports of goods in first quarter 2022. Imran Khan will haunt them everywhere. And like the shameless self-promoters, they will continue taking credit while squatting on a branch they saw down.

Such are the problems inflicted on a common man willingly, but the biggest damage is elsewhere; the dream of a self-reliant proud Pakistan.

Pakistan’s perceived advantages of appeasing USA will be far outweighed by the ripples it will create in Pakistan’s economic, developmental and defence sectors. These ripples will weaken Pakistan and I doubt USA will provide a free lunch. Changing a systems approach needs decades especially when it threatens to weaken the defence of Pakistan.  

The biggest damage is to Pakistan’s emerging policy of Rising Eurasia. Not only warmth with Russia is changed to contempt, Pakistan’s most reliable friend China that stood by Pakistan in many crises since 1965 is also being tested. Whether this relationship retains its pedestal of being higher than Himalayas and deeper than Oceans has been put to test? Right now it shows signs of erosion.

China, in the past decade has assumed a dominant role in the development sectors from building networks of roads, power projects, dams, railways, industries and parks. All this is connected to the BRI projects in the name of CPEC. Influx of multilateral funding, currency swaps and loans played a major role in insulating Pakistan’s economy from global ripples. This support could likely fade away.

China was Pakistan’s biggest donor in Covid-19 management, supply of medical equipment and refurbishing laboratories. This is why both China and Pakistan emerged as the least affected economies.

China educates a large number of Pakistani students up to PhD level at a highly subsidized cost. They have also introduces a ‘Yasin Anwar Scholarship’, exclusively for Pakistan’s brightest students.

The sudden rise of Electric vehicles like motorcycles, scooters, rickshaws and electric power packs depends on import of cheap Chinese raw materials and components. 

China has been a steady source of military hardware to Pakistan’s armed forces. These include naval equipment including frigates, aircrafts, tanks, electronics, surveillance systems, other armaments and munitions. Indigenization in Pakistan would never have been possible without Chinese technical assistance. Though the momentum of the systems in place would not end abruptly, modernization will be hampered.

 If Pakistan moves to the US camp once again, what will be the future of technical military cooperation with China? Or is Pakistan considering making peace with India, the regional bully and became an underling? These are questions that need answers to ascertain the trajectory of a future Pakistan.

Perhaps all answers lie in the future of CPEC, Chinese investments in Pakistan and military diplomacy between the two long-time friends. Signals and images coming from China are not good. Their ambassador in Pakistan is absent for six months. It is ignoring Pakistan and including India in higher strategic forums. 

For sure the world’s biggest economy bridging across the world would not put all eggs in one basket. Like a sleeping dragon China will wait out. It now has Russia, Central Asia, Iran and Myanmar as partners. China has major investments in India and their economic foot print many times more than Pakistan.

China is weary of the security of its persons in Pakistan, Pakistan’s future policy of opening sea ports to China, slow and delayed progress on dams and huge funds funneled into corruption. Despite losses, China may put all projects on hold.

In another scenario, Russia could persuade India to freeze hostilities with China and join the Eurasia project. Will Pakistan then benefit from Chinese Veto Power?

This being most dangerous, Pakistan could be reduced to a western outpost in Asia completely isolated. How will Pakistan execute a better strategic shift? I have no answer.

For USA and its allies, while Ukraine may be lost, there are efforts to pinch Eurasia with Pakistan.

Just a food for thought where Pakistan is headed?

MY GENERAL MUSHARRAF

Samson Simon Sharaf

In Pakistan, politicians and dictators are created by opportunity. The manipulative system is loaded against fair play. Despite his goods and wrongs, the legacy  of General Pervez Musharraf is replicated in today’s Pakistan; how the best intentions and performance of the head of state can be demonised. It is a pity that no lessons were learnt from his case study and therefore Pakistan will endure the same suffering in future.

Truth unconscientiously is the first casualty in war. The fog of war, lack of accurate information, limitations of judgement, fear and cognitive constructs work to eclipse reality. The planning for the most dangerous, most likely and unforeseen is factorised on an intangible template made to look tangible. This is where soldier politicians despite early blooming ultimately fail because they tend to see the environment as a battle field and not an intrigue ridden maze of possibilities. This is the limitation of fierce combaters be they soldiers or sportsmen.

Rulers surrounded by impregnable walls of exclusivity regress, turning a well-meaning dreamer and reformer into a failure. This has happened in past and likely to replay in future.

This is my story about the rise and fall of General (Retired) Syed Pervaiz Musharraf who became the President of Pakistan and despite all yearnings cannot return to his homeland he loves. I pray lessons are learnt from this legacy.

As a GOC in Okara he was a role model in training, administration, and welfare or extracurricular. In the evenings, the Midas Couple was a common sight, sitting at the bedside of patients keeping hospital staff on toes. When my course mate Lt. Col Zia died of cardiac arrest, the couple sat the night outside the CCU and wept profoundly when his death was. His presence brought a big developmental and social change in the deserted garrison. He played sports with youngsters, took care of their professional development and was always a mentor.

He was a commander and leader who lived in hearts and minds of his men. He has not lost this adoration as he lays bed ridden in a condition only a heavenly miracle can reverse.

I feel sad as one who adores him despite a critic of his politics. In his greatness and forgiving nature, he always embraced me as a younger brother. I recall my last conversation with him few years ago. He was kind and loving as ever with no grudges and admitted he did not pay heed.  

General Musharraf’s biggest fault was his trusting nature and inability to see beyond black and white. This aura was not his creation but of sycophants around him. Despite judicial legitimacies and constitutional indemnities, he lost the plots once he divorced himself from his original constituency. Positive socio-economic indicators in initial years notwithstanding, he submitted to short term expediencies with long term ramifications. The select loyalists were replaced by a group of evergreen advisors and courtiers who helped create grandiose narcissism in splendid isolation. Built around an autocratic self and absence of inclusiveness, this evolution ultimately overtook legal, democratic, moral or interpersonal commitments and, hence, the delusional impetus of indispensability. He became a contrast in indispensability and vulnerability. Right now a slightly modified saga is being replayed in Pakistan.

In many aspects, General Musharraf’s coup was popular. Some of his fiercest critics could not hide their glee. Many politicians who were not from the traditional stock came out openly in his support. Even Benazir Bhutto tacitly endorsed the coup against PMLN that left no space for others. As airwaves swept, his popularity grew with his short lived Jinnah’s mantle.

The rising public approval took its first brunt with an ill-conceived referendum. His omnipotent nightmares of legitimacy were addressed by the Supreme Court. Rather than become a true reformist, create his own following, groom new leaders, he collected a rag tag of wheeler dealers to forge his political constituency. When the time of reckoning came, they all flew away.

As a young officer who looked up to him, it pains me to see him wasted away into an oblivion he never deserved. His failure meant the shattering of dreams that were not just mine but of most Pakistanis. As he fights his last battle, his love, passion and dreams for Pakistan are still full of elixir and vigour he always had.

Musharraf’s edifice was built like a house of sand. His advisors were small men unworthy of trust.  His media czars never had the motivation of creating a sustainable perception. His ISPR spokesman stuttered and lacked wisdom. Fake personal loyalties replaced professionalism. Old time pals of yore resurfaced. There were other circles of advisors that revolved around his social contacts, bridge parties and admirers. Loyalists were side lined. His best horses never had the steam to run the course. They were stereotypes who had nothing new to offer.

Between 1999 and 2002, Pakistan witnessed an economic revival much like the last three years of Imran Khan. But there were Trojans at work.

Pakistan Steel Mill took off and after recovering losses began remitting profits. This achievement was eclipsed by his cabinet that floated an LOI signed by JKT for its privatisation. To make a fortune, it was imperative it sunk and so it began by 2007.

IPPs with tax exemptions had recovered investments and begun remitting profits and outsourcing costs abroad. New energy manipulators arrived to make Pakistan captive to high fuel based energy costs.  

To ensure economic captivity, the supply of petrol, oil and lubricants had to be cartelised. PSO was reorganised to create a floating threat of a circular serpent that could devour the entire national wealth. This was the drain plug.  

Small time entrepreneurs were diverted to consumer led cheap imports.  Consumerism with its euphemism of trickle down was the easiest method to gobble unsterilised foreign exchange. In the windfall thus created, remittances were grabbed back through rising import bills and consumer loans. At a time when rupee needed appreciation, it was devalued.

By 2007, when President Musharraf was pre occupied with the judiciary and elections, the bubble was ready to be deflated. The rising inflation, resurgence of sugar and wheat cartels, energy crises and power failures created an anti-Musharraf sentiment. The downfall was hurried by the Judicial Movement.

After the rejection of his NRO by Benazir Bhutto, a new one was negotiated outside his auspices. He quickly made peace with Benazir Bhutto but ultimately both had to go.

I knew him enough to be candid and point his mistakes point blank. He took it on the chin and sometimes graciously conceded. Others, he was stubborn like a rock. In a noting on 13 October 1999, I warned him to beware of Fly by Night Reformers as they would lead him off course. He was obsessed with devolution. As a staff officer, I had to remind him through presentations that devolution and local self government were two different dynamics; something he kept adrift. Finally he bowed before political forces he had set out to reform.

As a one-time subordinate, I stood on the shores watching the helpless derelict ship of Pakistan drift way. Gone were days when I could barge into the President’s office. Despite urgency, concentric circles of insulation around him could not be penetrated. And so in 2008, he left to return five years later.

The climax to the return of General (Retired) Pervez Musharraf after a self-imposed exile of five years had been slowly building. He was returning to Pakistan with the make belief of having been a reformist who had bolstered economic prosperity of his country only to see it crumble during his exile.

In the overseas learning circuits, he delivered lectures with emotions and convictions. He silenced many Indian anchors and analysts. His motivational arguments were followed by standing ovations. He once again got convinced that he was the helmsman Pakistan desperately needed to steer out of troubled waters. Along the way, his small but devoted group of admirers, television channels of every description and the appreciative international audience played their role in convincing him that the nation awaited him.

His frustrations and the strong emotions emboldened the cognition of a hero’s return. However, this pomp was not to be and he continues to face the indignity before courts and the media. The hyperactive judiciary, an elastic democracy and the media bent on dominating airwaves would ensure that they would make breaking news of his every move and critics of the military would spare no moment to disgrace the institution busy in fighting its lonely war.

Facing police investigations and hostile courts, his dream of being indispensable to a vulnerable country he loved faded quickly. I can guess this must have been his thoughts when he diverted to AFIC Rawalpindi Cantonment on way to the court. Sick, he was finally going home, to fly into another exile.

Given the method of politics in Pakistan, I would still rate him amongst those few islands of good intentions and prosperity. In Islamabad, national interests of Pakistan do not matter. It is how a select coterie perceives its game plan. This is the same impulse that General Aslam Beg and General Jehanghir Karamat avoided but General Musharraf fell for. Megalomania and courtiers are the biggest curse of Pakistan.

Now that Pakistan once again grapples with its home grown political crises and instability, My General Mushharaf offers a case study of how it should not be. As the water passes under the bridge, it cannot be returned. But new tides can be created.        

PAKISTAN’S IMPORTED CRISES PART I

Imran Khan’s Cardinal Sin

Samson Simon Sharaf

Regime Change 2022 in Pakistan has the façade of the right of a ‘vote of no confidence’ under the democratic conventions and traditions. The manner in which it evolved into a Penetrative Maneuver through bureaucratic coercion, interpretation of constitution and slideshow of irresponsible clarifications deepen the plot as a deeply sacrilegious act against the Constitution of Pakistan. Rule of Law became Rule by Order.

Man proposes and God disposes. If the objective was to get a pliant leadership into power, the objective is met halfway because bending backwards is also back breaking? There are deep fissures in the PDM while some ministers basking overseas have yet to make an appearance. While the government spokespersons spew filth, it is left to ISPR to do the damage control and build narratives that do not stick.

The incumbents lack technical expertise and were not prepared to handle the crises of a closing financial year. The financial crises has deepened on all fronts including current account deficit, balance of payments, hedging of foreign exchange reserves, international financial obligations, swaps, price hikes, inflation, stagflation. In addition, the climate change has not been kind with an unprecedented heat wave, less rainfalls, dry rivers and tragedy of livestock in deserts. Dollarization of the economy is at its peak.

If the objective was to get a credible leadership into power, then 60% of the lot is involved in massive corruption and facing charges, arraignments and accountability in courts? Though the courts are giving express relief, it is clear that justice is being manipulated.

It is now evident that Imran Khan thrown out on flimsy and unsubstantiated charges had a far superior plan duly acknowledged by IMF and IFIs and present governor of State Bank of Pakistan. The latest testimonies are that export remittances continue to rise and Pakistan is cleared from FATF list. This means that those who charge sheeted him on economic mismanagement had no idea of what economics is. 

Finally, if the objective was to put Pakistan on a nose diving instability trajectory leading to bad governance, unrest, adverse public reaction and destabilization, then it is certainly being achieved.

Combined with a weakened federation due to 18^th amendment, judgements of the superior courts and all the above, the evil design is well into its culmination phase. The immediate target could be elimination of PTI and its extremely popular Chairman Imran Khan. Elections in Karachi prove where the heart of the people is. But one looming danger is crystal clear. The ultimate victims will be the armed forces; the gatekeepers of the jewels. Will this scenario suit a country in which this multi religious and multi ethnic disciplined force has been the main binder in history?

A very biased media controlled by the state and rich portray Imran Khan as the ultimate venomous evil that has to be obliterated. In contrast, the mammoth display of public reaction against regime change seen in successive impromptu and planned gatherings indicate something amiss that primarily challenges the aspirations of the people, aggravated by the conditions created to ousts Imran Khan. This results in an ever widening divide, creating polarity and an exploitable fault line filled with popular disapproval and sea of emotions that could result into an explosive situation.  

Though the opposition now lumped into one Pakistan Democratic Movement routinely aspired and conspired to oust Prime Minister Imran Khan, it suddenly got a ‘shot in the arm’ towards the end of 2021. The Diplomatic cable received from Pakistan’s Embassy in Washington and the manner it was archived and down played infuriated masses that were not traditionally PTI supporters.

Despite that National Security Committee in two different meetings agreed it was interference by USA in varying degrees, it avoided the word Conspiracy. Even if the superlatives of interference and blatant interference are accepted, no one has bothered to trace and find linkages to such interference which would logically conclude towards a conspiracy.  Recent statement by ISPR has rekindled a debate how an assessment of the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, The Chief Executive and the Cabinet could be down graded by ISPR.

This raises another intriguing question. Why target only Imran Khan?

The answer is straight forward. His ouster has triggered a popular reaction in all segments of an apolitical society. This sea of emotions like all hijacked evolutions and revolutions can easily be channelized by hostile elements towards nefarious designs. This is what Pakistan has to guard against.

On the geostrategic template, Imran Khan is a small dot, who dared and continues to challenge the dominating equilibrium led by USA. After the unceremonious withdrawal of USA from Afghanistan, Imran Khan rising as a new voice of reason and self-esteem against peripheral wars was not taken well. He seemed too independent in contrast to pliable regimes that ruled and served masters for the past decades.

As the Asian Century rises with China and Russia in lead, Imran used Pakistan’s pivotal position to good advantage. He became a major stakeholder in what I describe the ‘End of Geo Strategy of Containing Eurasia’. Therefore he became an easy target for the willing and ignorant.

With Eurasia completely fallen out of the ORBAT, the RIMLAND of Pakistan could never be lost. Connectivity of Eurasia through Pakistan into Indian Ocean, Middle East (Southern Front) onto Africa and Mediterranean was a nightmare for a unipolar world. A strong, self reliant and proud Pakistan would make it worse.  

USA has achieved in this Asian Pivot through local collaborators what it failed in four decades in Afghanistan. It is to be seen if this design will materialize or be defeated?

In an earlier article why did I call it a Hybrid Coup?

This is a 6th generation offensive and a deeply penetrative maneuver. Regime change was just a precursor. The major action will take place on multiple fronts, domains and manifestations. 

I shall deal with the geostrategic effect in the next part of this essay.

Economic disaster aside, the public uproar and anger is being be channelized towards the army. Parrying yet another design, Imran Khan has come out with full ownership of the armed forces, but for how long can he continue to secure flanks?

The matter is now far beyond the assumed culpability and declared apolitical function of the armed forces. The notion that it was allowed to happen for evolution of democratic evolution has backfired. It is no more relevant. Pakistan is in deep crises and something needs to be done to restore sanity.

Ominously, with no support coming from within the system, the next battle ground will be the streets. Then the noblest intentions will become a Pawn (Read Pawn to King Three by Mahmud Sipra). 

This is a message for those who have eyes to see and ears to hear.

Though I wrote earlier that if this dreaded conspiracy intensifies, only the combined will of armed forces and the Folk Hero can combat it. The way Election Commission is proceeding with the voter lists, it appears even this rainbow has vanished.

To be completed….

A HYBRID COUP

Peshawar. PTI Media Cell 13 April 2022

Samson Simon Sharaf

There is an irony. In our part of the world, in 711 AD, tears of a woman moved an army into Sindh. 13 centuries later, neutrality moved women to tears!

With everything going hybrid in current times, it is unimaginable that the ‘Powers that Be’ pulled off in Pakistan a hybrid coup against the populist government of Prime Minister Imran Khan? Though it is a momentary success, the far reaching implications entail serious consequences for the country. The ultimate objective could be dismantling the state itself.  

The alarming fact about this external sponsored regime change by a country; universally notorious for such operations through politically, financially and morally corrupt carpetbaggers was allowed to happen by ‘manifested neutrality call apolitical’ with the noble objective of strengthening democracy in the country. The breakneck speed of the Judiciary, one sided interpretations and refusal to open the Pandora’s Box indicates more complicity than fair play. As for PDM, they all moved in well-coordinated unison at a single point of impact; Imran Khan.

Notwithstanding good intentions, the road to hell is always the same; a dictum we learned in the armed force during tactical and strategic planning. To obviate failures, particularly when they impinge the mission, there are always alternatives and variants put into place imaginatively.

Notwithstanding that Conspiracy and Intervention fall in the same band of spectrum, the deafening silence till now raises far more questions than the answers it gave. The kettle will keep boiling still such time this Conspiracy, Interference or whatever perceived does reach the logical conclusion.

Is the game over or it has yet to unfold towards the logical end? I do not have an answer. But what can be written with clarity is that Pakistan is in an uncontrolled somersault down the abyss and lowest of pit.

As the public uproar on 11 April indicated, people across all political divides thronged in Pakistan’s cities, towns and villages to protest against US sponsored regime change. Though there was a blackout on Pakistani TV Channels, the events were telecast live by foreign TV channels and cell phone applications from mega cities to villages. It is estimated that over 10 million protesters began gathering after Iftar and continued to swell till dawn on 12 April. Conspicuously, the ousted Prime Minister did not make an appearance.

Commentators expected much bigger crowds when Imran Khan begins his countrywide tour from 13 April onwards. In Peshawar, the crowds that gathered eclipsed both 11 and 27 April. With cell phone torches lit, even drone cameras could not cover the length and breadth in one single shot.

This is the public outrage over treatment of a National Icon who has made Pakistan proud over the past four decades. Let there be no doubt that he controls the hearts and minds and no counter narrative building can oust this perception.

This was a power show by a political party that had for two decades galvanised the people of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and FATA towards a national cohesion despite emergence of secessionists, foreign sponsored terrorists and WOT; and one that has representation countrywide, rules two provinces, Azad Kashmir and Gilgit Baltistan.  It was also a party that had picked body bags in Karachi when MQM hitmen menaced the city and lost some of its leadership to assassins.

If the momentum and impetus of these gatherings persist and increase, it will turn out to become the ‘Option of Last Resor’. I pray it does not escalate into ‘people versus them’. With each passing day, while Imran Khan would not have full control over the masses, vested interests and hostile intelligence agencies could infiltrate to ignite the ball of fire. The people for a besieged Imran Khan are a synergy and the responsibility to calm the situation lie with the apolitical and certainly not the plotters of the Hybrid Coup. In the National Power Matrix, this is the ‘Fleeting Opportunity of National Character and Morale’

The cautious approach on a Razor’s Edge was overtaken by the speed of events 3 April onwards. The courts were opened on a Sunday on a Suo Moto and yet the Presidential reference sent to the courts was evaded. What happened next was perhaps an over use of the Law of Necessity that took over all Executive Powers of the Prime Minister. The Review Petition of the government against its ruling was never entertained.  

For 48 hours before the prime minister left his office, the establishment was getting orders passed and implemented; sometimes against the government officials. There was a media blackout, a sudden surge of propaganda and arrests of grass roots activists. Workers of a party long admired for their patriotism suddenly became subversive elements. The quickness and mopping up of the pace of events proves that it was a well-planned swift operation. Perhaps, even the last minute interlocutors were following orders but not aware what had hit the fan and the roof’ or did they pretend so?

There is no evasion before an onslaught of masses and Synonyms will not work.

Some actors of this hybrid coup are clearly identified.

The actions taken by the Bureaucracy, police, FIA, Immigration Department and the honourable judges were all coordinated.

PDM that planned negotiated and the only beneficiary is complicit. Postings, transfers and sackings had already started. Exit Control is a very serious affair and could not have been exercised against members of the government despite prime minister restricted in exercise of powers due to vote of no confidence. Who had planned these loopholes and on whose orders these were put into quick execution. Perhaps we will never know.

The judiciary by ignoring its Advisory Jurisdiction, invoking Suo Moto and Contempt Jurisdiction used the No Confidence Motion to justify impingement upon the executive functions and powers of the Speaker and Prime Minister. The intervention raised the perceptions of a weakened Prime Minister. There was a domino effect on fence sitters who walked over to the adversary.  Neither the court realised nor did the government lawyers point out the effect of these proceedings into the political domain. The Court never opened the Pandora Box.

The worst spill over of this political conflict created by the opposition, external powers that benefit from Imran Khan’s ouster and the single dimensional judiciary is on the military establishment. Everyone blames their neutrality that does not fit with public perceptions built over decades. The word Selected used by PDM itself was a contempt towards armed forces. The reality of Memo-gate and Dawn Leaks cannot be eclipsed. So while PDM has to take flak for its role, public ire is being craftily channelized towards the military.

Inasmuch they despise Imran Khan and take him ‘Head On’, discrediting military is a crucial objective of Destabilisation Trajectory.

As events stand and back to my opening paragraph, the ultimate objective could be dismantling the state itself. According to US research organisations and statements of their functionaries, chaos in Pakistan would provide the instability necessary to defang Pakistan. Armed forces cannot be apolitical rather provide crucial stability to the country where looters, cheaters and corrupt rulers seize the helm.

Meanwhile the class struggle between the ‘Have Not’ and ‘Haves’ takes a new dimension. They have endured the weather, trying conditions and long journeys in cramped vehicles for a dream. The past of 1970 is being repeated. The deep malaise of ruling elites is endemic and needs a strong medicine. Status quo political parties in denial of civil liberties are intransigent.

The events in Marriot Hotel Islamabad and Lahore are indicators of events to follow. Consequently, peaceful protests could become violent and spread all over the country. Within this political turbulence, sceptics do not rule out an intervention; an invisible force to hijack Pakistan for good.

Unlike Julius Caesar, folded within the ‘Conspiracy and Intervention’, a murder is planned and not executed There are not one but many Noble Brutus, ‘who just in an honest thought and common good to all, made one of them.”

It is time for these Brutus’ to realise and put their act together.

SEIZE THE MOMENT. CEASE THE SLIDE!

Pakistan’s Imran Khan steps out as Prime Minister with his only belongings

Brigadier General Shahid Dawood Rajput (Retired)

There is strong possibility that Pakistan is about to fall into a deep and dark abyss. Who can stop it and how?

Let me start by narrating a story, a fiction of course but with a moral. The story goes like this:

During a joint naval exercise, officers from three different nations are bragging about the bravery, courage and discipline of their men. When the discussion gets heated, they decide to manifest it practically. The American admiral calls a sailor to climb up the mast and jump on the deck which he does promptly landing on he deck with his bones shattered. The Japanese asks his sailor to jump into the sea. The Japanese soldier also complies without any hesitation, never to be seen again. British admiral calls his sailor, hands him his loaded revolver and asks him to shoot himself in the head. The British soldier replies, “Are you crazy admiral, go get some sleep”. The British admiral tells his colleagues, “gentlemen this is real discipline, real courage, to be able to say NO to an unlawful command!”

When I was a young officer more than four decades ago, I learnt a good piece of advice from a brigadier. He said, “ when you put on lipstick on your collars ( meaning when you are promoted brigadier or above), you are expected to have the courage to say NO”. The slogan, “do or die, not to ask why” is good for the field commanders up to the level of unit commanders but senior commanders must exercise their judgement and professional competence to evaluate the consequences of any order and if in their judgement, it is against the interests of the military/country, they must put their foot down. That good brigadier probably had an overdose of the potion he was selling as he never got promoted beyond brigadier despite being professionally very competent.

This is neither against military discipline nor refutes the traditional concept of loyalty to the command or the institution. It is also not to encourage mutiny or revolt. Rather it’s a safety mechanism against erroneous decision making since the militaries wield tremendous destructive powers in their hands. It exists, formally or informally in all the major armies and there are examples in the history of its application. During WW 2, British admiralty refused Churchill to send military supply convoy to East Africa through Mediterranean when it was dominated by German navy and U boats and chose to send it via a circuitous and long but safe route around the Cape of Good Hope. During the Trump era, US military high command had decided not to carry out any whimsical orders by Trump regarding nuclear arsenal and assurance to that effect was indeed conveyed to the Chinese even to guard against accidental outbreak of nuclear war. In our own history too, after the 71 debacle, General Yehya was forced to abdicate through the efforts of some brigadiers and generals, late Brig FB Ali being a leading character of that effort. It has never been termed as a mutiny or revolt, rather lauded as a service to the nation.

Now let’s see the senior military command’s responsibility in the context of Pakistan’s current political situation which is in an extremely critical stage to say the least. Recent weeks have seen some bizarre acts in the parliament and judiciary which resulted in change of government overnight. Resultantly, we have our 23rd PM being sworn in the day he along with his son was to be indicted in a court in money laundering case. He has about a dozen cases pending against him in the courts and is on bail in several of these cases. His other son and son in law are absconders and living in UK. His brother, three times ex-prime minister along with his samdhi, ex finance minister are also absconders and living in London in the same flats which at one stage they refused to own and later could not provide satisfactory money trail for its purchase. His brother, the ex PM was also sentenced to ten year jail term, released on bail and sent abroad abroad on bizarre medical grounds. His niece, Maryam Nawaz was also sentenced to 7 years jail term and currently is out on bail purportedly to look after her sick father who is not here. Wonder why her two brothers and one sister couldn’t do that.

Some credentials!

Political upheavals are not unusual in any country. But what is unusual about current crisis is that it has drawn very strong almost unprecedented public reaction. Huge crowds have come out to protest almost spontaneously without much preparation by the political party and without any leadership not only in all major cities and towns in Pakistan but also abroad where ever there is a sizeable population of Pakistani expats. There are three main elements of their protest. First they consider the new government of PDM and its top leadership consisting of Sharifs, Zardari/Bhutto and Fazl ur Rehman as thoroughly corrupt and discredited. They have instantly dubbed the Prime Minister as Crime Minister to prove their point. They feel that this leadership has ruled for 30 to 40 years and have not delivered, so how they are going to deliver now. They refuse to accept them. Secondly they believe that this government has been imposed upon them through American meddling ( call it conspiracy ) in our internal affairs. The term, Imported Government says it all. Whether you call it a letter, cable or memo and irrespective of what is written in it, it is quite obvious that US was not happy with PTI government of Imran Khan. Increasing cooperation with china, CPEC, getting closer to Russia, not condemning its attack on Ukraine, Islamic summit, refusal to provide bases for operations in Afghanistan etc were some of the thorny issues. Recent flurry of activities by US diplomatic corps, meeting all the PDM leaders, possible defectors from PTI and even some judges further cements the suspicion. PTI supporters now firmly believe that this was a US conspiracy for regime change in Pakistan.

Third and the most dangerous element of this public outburst is that people blame Pak Army for orchestrating and executing this regime change plan. They believe that army wooed the allies away from PTI and encouraged the defectors. Opposition parties of PDM were trying since day one to get rid of IK. They tried every trick in the book; rallies, jalsas, long marches, dharnas, sit ins, but could not succeed. They even contemplated resignations but couldn’t convince all the members. They thought of no confidence move also in the past but could not muster the required numbers. Suddenly by February/March this year things started to fall in line and PDM was able to acquire the desired numbers for a vote of no confidence. It is widely believed that army did the ground work probably under US pressure/coercion. That is why the public ire is directed against the army and its chief, general Bajwa. It is unprecedented that army is being abused so openly and so severely. This is a very grave situation for no army can hope to succeed without public support.

The only institution that can remedy the situation is the Army. That is where the top leadership of the army comes into play. Senior commanders, the three stars under Bajwa have a huge responsibility on their shoulders to convince their chief to take immediate remedial measures not only for the sake of army’s reputation but to save the country from falling into chaos and turmoil. Army probably miscalculated the public reaction. Whatever we have seen till now is perhaps a precursor of the things to come. So far IK has not come out in public. When he comes out to lead the crowds, things will get much more serious. And our enemies are likely to take advantage of the situation. A little blast or firing in the public rallies can turn the things irreversibly ugly. Already the enemy is active on social media. The army has to act and act now before it’s too late. The only viable solution to this impasse is immediate fair and free elections. There would be resistance from the PDM coalition government, election commission and judiciary but if the army wants to do it, they can do it. Any delays will allow the incumbents to set the field to their advantage which will further complicate the issue rather than solving it. For this to happen, the army chief has to be convinced. There is a faint glimmer of hope in gen Bajwa avoiding the oath taking ceremony. This is the job of senior military leadership. The retired ex service chiefs and three stars can lend their support but the main onus remains on the shoulders of serving three stars. They have to convince their chief to rectify the error failing which they have to ask/force him to leave.

They must rise to the occasion. They should seize the moment and must stop the country from sliding down the abyss!

CONSTITUTION VERSUS CONSTITUTION

Samson Simon Sharaf

One glaring aspect of the present political manoeuvring and impasse is that in the highest judicial forum of Pakistan, the Constitution is pitched against itself.

The battle about the security interests of the state versus constitutional rights (that may impact positive decision making to safeguard the sovereignty) has been converted into petition prayers.

Earlier, the Supreme Court of Pakistan took an unprecedented Suo Moto which pitches the Law of Necessity directly against the power of the Speaker, who being the custodian of the National Assembly enjoys constitutional protection.  

With a microscope in each hand lawyers from all sides and honourable judges are finding loop holes in two successive decisions; first rejection of the motion of vote of no confidence by the speaker and deputy speaker on grounds of Article 5 (loyalty and patriotism to the state) with information fed by the federal government, secondly the dissolution of the Parliament and announcing of new elections.

As a consequence the PDM lawyers have invoked Article 6 (abrogation, subversion etc by use of force or show of force or by any other unconstitutional means shall be guilty of high treason).

The paradox is that the Speaker, Deputy Speaker, Prime Minister and President while exercising their powers under Article 5 of the Constitution are deemed traitors under Article 6 of the Constitution.

In a related development, under advisory jurisdiction of Article 186, the President of Pakistan sent a timely reference to the Supreme Court of Pakistan seeking clarifications on Article 63A. Since March 22, the subject reference is stuck in the Courts and government can plead that it initiated the subject reference to seek clarity and that the slow proceedings in the court left it no option but to brief the Speaker and Deputy Speaker on the Regime Change Threat against a legitimate government of Pakistan for geopolitical and geostrategic purposes. It is time the Supreme Court also links this reference with the ongoing case.    

The present impasse proves that Statecraft more than usual is in contrast to the constitution. Had there been constraints, regime change operations all over the world, invasions of Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan and most recently Russian invasion of Ukraine would never have taken place.

In a Realist Paradigm with law of fishes, where the big fish eat the small, where rule of the jungle prevails, where subversion, sponsoring regime changes, create anarchy in target countries and strong countries bully the weak, by using all kinetic and non-kinetic means, Threat Perception and taking defensive measures is the responsibility of the Chief Executive. If he does not act in time to deter and defeat such threats, he stands guilty of not doing his duty under article 5 of the constitution.

The question arises that should the Chief Executive been timid and waited for Supreme Court for go ahead on issues of a real threat to national security that were time sensitive or waited for the regime change operation to succeed?

Or that the opposition is justified in calling the letter a hoax leading to high treason?

Or, the honourable judges interpret law and statecraft in a manner that justifies their Suo Moto (Law of Necessity)?

Tragically and at the cost of great peril to major actors, the only logical and rational course is to open the ‘Pandora Box’.

PAKISTAN- ACTION REPLAY LATIN AMERICA

Samson Simon Sharaf

“Nation States are born free but everywhere in chains”

Rousseau

Right now a dirty political game is being played. The objectives of this game of ‘No Confidence’ is not built on a democratic notion, but rather, to remove forever, the newly emerging edifice that has potential to reframe the Balance of Power and reduce USA to a world island breaking CENTCOM and Indo Pacific Command at the seams. Pakistan is far more stronger than its seems despite attrition it has suffered at its own hands.

There is a dis-connect between Pakistan’s Power Potential and Realised Power. Pakistan showed patches of brilliance only to recluse into attrition and hibernation. This attrition corresponds directly to self-interests of elites across the entire spectrum. Consequentially, countries, International Financial Institutions and Multinationals stepped in to dominate and control policies.

Latin American countries provide many case studies of self-destruction through foreign interference. This is why I advocate Pakistanis to study Latin American political economy conspicuous through bad governance, corruption, coups and poverty. The tools to create such situations are provided by non-state actors like International financial institutions, banks, venture capitalists, speculators, cartels, multi nationals, political parties, regulators, autonomous authorities, speculators, NGOs, sanctions, local businesses and money launderers.

For over thirty years, covert actions in South America were led by proxies of CIA. Names like John Negroponte an American diplomat working with CIA in Honduras and Colonel Jim Steele, a notorious agent of US atrocities in El Salvador and Panama ring alarms. By 2002, these men were assigned to Middle East and South Asia. Steele set up torture units. In due course, there was a Sunni uprising in Fallujah and Mosul that became the epicenter of ISIS/ISIL/ Da’esh. Then it spread to Syria and Libya. Da’esh is already placed in Afghanistan and occasionally strikes in Pakistan.

Pakistan could be heading the way of many Latin American countries. This is where Imran Khan’s global vision, OIC and acknowledgement of Rising China begin to make sense; something the doctor did not order.

When this happens, the National Interests of the country dwindle into obscurity and the country plunges into a confused state of poverty, mismanagement and international exploitation.

It is important to understand Cause and Effect. The cause is not what appears to be, but the ultimate political effects desired by the interventionists. The nexus of interests between the ingrained actors and manipulations by outside actors resulted in political instability and recession. This is how a war between left leaning egalitarians and capitalism is fought.

For Pakistanis, clarity in thought and ability to recognize the ailing symptoms is crucial. Over the years, I have identified three national interests of Pakistan that explain why Pakistan must not be allowed to grow. These are Pakistan’s Afghan Policy, Nuclear Capability and Kashmir. The latest addition is the rise of Islamic States in Central Asia (Eurasia) and their connectivity to Middle East and Africa through China-Pakistan.

In Western perspective after the Forbidden Fruit, this is a cardinal sin in a geostrategic important area successfully contained for over a century.

The rise of thugs, gangsters and mobsters to power politics of Pakistan is no coincidence. It was inevitable for a country whose most leaders are up for sales, whose geo strategic location is enviable, whose resources massive and one that has the forbidden fruits.

Like the Test Cricket Team, Pakistan has amazing bits of brilliance in its character and that’s why I am in love with the Green and White. I am sure the temperate willpower shall overcome despair, fight odds and bring relief and pride to its people.  

عمران خان کیوں جیتے گا اور کامیاب ہوگا

دوڑ تیز رفتار سے نہیں ہے اور نہ ہی مضبوط سے جنگ ہے،

نہ ہی کھانا عقلمندوں کے لیے آتا ہے اور نہ ہی ذہین کے لیے دولت ہوتی ہے اور نہ ہی علم رکھنے والوں کے لیے خیر ہوتی ہے۔

لیکن وقت اور موقع ان سب کے ساتھ ہوتا ہے۔

واعظ 9:11

سیمسن سائمن شرف

پاکستانیوں کا ایک بڑا طبقہ سنسنی خیز صحافت، بریکنگ نیوز اور سازشی تھیوریوں کا عادی ہے۔ تعلیم یافتہ طبقے بھی اس سے مستثنیٰ نہیں ہیں۔

پاکستان تھنک ٹینکس اور ڈسکشن فورمز کے درمیان، پاکستان کی صلاحیت اور مستقبل کے نقطہ نظر پر مکالمے دب جاتے ہیں۔ جب کہ ہمارے ہم عصر جنہوں نے ہمارے ترقیاتی ماڈل کی پیروی کی وہ اعلیٰ بین الاقوامی درجہ بندی کے لیے چھلانگیں لگاتے رہتے ہیں، پاکستان ماضی کی سیاست میں پھنسا ہوا ہے۔

اس سیاست نے لالچ، کرپشن، پیشہ ورانہ نااہلی اور غیر اخلاقی طرز عمل کو جنم دیا ہے۔ پاکستان کی سیاسی معیشت کا فریم ورک قوموں کے درمیان ایک خود انحصاری اور قابل فخر پاکستان کے عظیم وژن سے واضح طور پر محروم ہے۔

کسی بھی ملک کی قومی طاقت اس کے مستقل اور بدلتے عناصر پر منحصر ہوتی ہے۔ لیکن جس چیز نے جنوبی کوریا، آئرلینڈ، ملائیشیا اور انڈونیشیا جیسے ممالک کو آگے بڑھایا اور اکٹھا کیا وہ قلیل مواقع اور موقع کے کھیل کو سمجھنے کی صلاحیت تھی۔ ان ممالک نے پاکستانی ماڈل کی پیروی کی، جو پاکستانیوں کے لیے محض دھول اور مٹی کی طرح بے معنی ہے۔

عمران خان پاکستان میں مستقبل کے لیے ایک وژن لے کر آئے ہیں جس کے لیے تمام پاکستانیوں کو کوشش کرنی چاہیے۔ وہ وقتی مواقع کو سمجھنے کی صلاحیت بھی رکھتا ہے اور قومی کردار اور حوصلے کے ہم آہنگ رویے کے لیے ماحول پیدا کرتا ہے۔ یہ قومی طاقت کے ضروری پہلو ہیں جن سے پاکستان محروم رہا۔ اتنی دیر تک.

عمران خان اگرچہ موجودہ حالات سے گریز کر رہے ہیں، لیکن ان کی نظریں دور دراز افق پر جمی ہوئی ہیں۔ وہ بیک وقت کئی محاذوں سے لڑنے اور ان سے نمٹنے کی ہمت اور عزم رکھتا ہے۔ یہی وجہ ہے کہ عمران خان ان جینیاتی طور پر تبدیل شدہ بحرانوں سے بچیں گے اور بلندی پر جائیں گے۔

مجھے یقین ہے کہ اس نے بہت زیادہ مطلوبہ تجربہ حاصل کیا ہے۔ وہ ایک نئی ترقیاتی معیشت اور ایک مستحکم عالمی پلیٹ فارم کا آغاز کرتے ہوئے پاکستان کو اگلے مرحلے میں لے جائیں گے۔

دنیا متحرک ہے اور بدل رہی ہے۔ پاکستان کو اپنے عوام کی قیمت پر ماضی سے چمٹے رہنے سے بچنا ہوگا۔ اسے جوار اور وقت کے ساتھ اپنی پالیں بدلنی پڑتی ہیں۔ عمران خان اپنے مخالفین کی بڑھتی ہوئی تعداد کے باوجود یہی کر رہے ہیں۔ پاکستان کو اپنے قریبی اتحادیوں کے ساتھ اٹھنا ہوگا۔ ہمارا مستقبل یوریشیا ہے۔

لہذا؛

موجودہ PDM اور NCM خطے کے اسٹریٹجک شطرنج بورڈ کے لیے خلل ڈالنے والے ہیں۔ سیڑھیوں کے بجائے، یہ سانپوں کو چیک بورڈ پر رکھتے ہیں۔ یہ یوریشیا (روس، چین، سینٹرل ایشیائی ریاستیں، افغانستان، ایران، ترکی اور پاکستان) کے لیے موزوں نہیں ہے۔ ایجی ٹیشن خود کو بڑھاوا دینے والی سیاسی اشرافیہ وقت اور جوار کے ساتھ ہم آہنگ نہیں ہے۔

ذرا جائزہ لیں اور غور کریں کہ عمران خان نے ایک ایسے وقت میں کیا کیا ہے جب اپوزیشن ان کے گلے پڑ رہی تھی۔

انہوں نے ریکوڈک معاہدہ حاصل کیا جو بلوچستان اور پاکستان کی ترقیاتی معاشیات میں گیم چینجر ثابت ہو گا۔ اس نے ایک دہائی قبل لالچ اور لوٹ مار کے ذریعے پیدا ہونے والی صورت حال کو دوبارہ حاصل کیا اور اس کو بڑی طاقت کے ساتھ بچایا۔ آئندہ چند سالوں میں 11 بلین امریکی ڈالر سے زیادہ پاکستان کی معیشت میں داخل ہوں گے جس سے روزگار کے مواقع پیدا ہوں گے۔ فروخت سے حاصل ہونے والی آمدنی میں پاکستان کا 50 فیصد حصہ ہے جو معیشت کے تمام اشاریوں کو فروغ دے گا۔

عمران خان نے ترک صدر رجب طیب اردگان کے ساتھ اپنی دوستی کا استعمال کرتے ہوئے کارکے تنازعہ کو خوش اسلوبی سے حل کیا اور پاکستان کو 1.2 بلین امریکی ڈالر کا جرمانہ بچایا جو انٹرنیشنل سینٹر فار سیٹلمنٹ آف انویسٹمنٹ ڈسپیوٹس (ICSID) کی طرف سے لگایا گیا تھا۔

اسلام آباد میں او آئی سی کی اہمیت کو کم کرنا سیاستدانوں (PDM) کی لاعلمی کو ظاہر کرتا ہے۔ جب 57 مسلم اقوام اس کانفرنس میں شرکت کرتے ہیں تو یہ افغانستان تک محدود نہیں رہتی۔ تزویراتی طور پر یہ سینٹرل ایشیائی ریاستوں کو بحیرہ عرب، مشرق وسطیٰ اور بحر ہند سے جوڑنے کا موقع فراہم کرتا ہے۔

اگر قارئین سینٹرل ایشیائی ریاستوں کے بارے میں غور کریں، تو یہ یوریشیا کے سب سے واضح نتیجے کی طرف لے جائے گا، ایک صدی سے زیادہ عرصے سے مغرب کی اچیلز ہیلس۔ یہ بھی بتا دیں کہ یوریشیا میں اکثریتی آبادی مسلمانوں کی ہے۔ لہذا جب یوریشیا منسلک ہوتا ہے، تو اس کا مطلب ہے یوریشیا سے افریقہ تک ایک بڑا متعدی مسلم بلاک۔ یوریشیا کی طرف جانے میں ان کی مشکلات ہوں گی لیکن عمران خان کی قیادت میں پاکستان کو آگ کے اس دریا سے کامیابی سے گزرنا ہے۔

کامیابی کی اور بھی کہانیاں ہیں جو پاکستانیوں کو جاننا ضروری ہیں۔ CoVID-19 مینجمنٹ، ریونیو کلیکشن، کرنٹ اکاؤنٹ خسارہ، برآمدات، ترسیلات زر، صحت کارڈز، اسکالرشپس، SME لون، انٹرپرینیور شپ اور تعلیم کے چند نام ہیں۔

لہٰذا جب پاکستان مارچ پر ہے، عالمی اور ملکی مفادات ایک دوسرے سے جڑے ہوئے ہیں اور بہت ضروری قومی کردار اور حوصلے عوام کے ذریعے نظر آرہے ہیں، عمران خان کیوں جائیں؟

ایسا صرف دشمن اور مفاد پرست سیاستدان ہی کر سکتے ہیں۔

WHY IMRAN KHAN WILL SURVIVE AND SOAR

Courtesy The Print

The race is not to the swift or the battle to the strong,

Nor does food come to the wise or wealth to the brilliant or favour to the learned;

But time and chance happen to them all

Ecclesiastes 9:11

Samson Simon Sharaf

A large segment of Pakistanis is addicted to sensational journalism, breaking news and conspiracy theories. Educated classes are no exception.

Amongst Pakistan Think Tanks and Discussion Forums, dialogues on Pakistan’s potential and future outlook remain subdued. While our contemporaries who followed our development model took leaps and bounds for top international rankings, Pakistan is stuck in the politics of the past.

This politics has bred greed, corruption, professional incompetence and unethical practices. The framework of political economy of Pakistan conspicuously misses the grandiose vision of a self-reliant and proud Pakistan amongst the comity of nations.

National Power of any country depends on its permanent and shifting elements. But what propels and singles out countries like South Korea, Ireland, Malaysia and Indonesia was the ability to grasp the fleeting opportunities and game of chance. These countries followed the Pakistani Model, which for Pakistanis is done and dusted.

Imran Khan brings to Pakistan a vision for futures for which all Pakistanis must strive. He also has the ability to grasp fleeting opportunities and created environments for syncretic behavior of national character and morale. These are essential synergisers of National Power that Pakistan missed; for far so long.

Though Imran Khan is grappling the present, his eyes are set on the far away elusive horizons. He has the tenacity and will to fight and tackle multiple fronts simultaneously. This is why Imran Khan will survive these genetically modified crises and soar high.

I am convinced that with the much needed experience he has gained. He will lead Pakistan into the next phase, ushering a new Development Economy and a stable global platform.

The world is dynamic and changing. Pakistan has to avoid the comfort for clinging to the past at the cost of its people. It has to shift its sails with tide and time. This is what Imran Khan despite growing numbers of his detractors, is doing. Pakistan has to rise with its closest allies. The Future is Eurasia.

Therefore;

The present PDM and NCM are disruptive to the Strategic Chess Board of the Region. Instead of ladders, these put snakes on the chequerboard. This does not suit Eurasia (Russia, China, CARS, Afghanistan, Iran, Turkey and Pakistan). The agitation is self-aggrandising political elites is out of tune with time and tide.

Just evaluate and ponder what Imran Khan has done single handed at a time when opposition was getting to his throat.

He secured the Reko Dik deal which will become a game changer in Balochistan and Pakistan’s development economics. He has retrieved and mightily salvaged a situation created through greed and plunder over a decade ago. In the next few years over 11 Billion US$ will flow into Pakistan’s economy, providing jobs. Pakistan has 50% stake in the sale proceeds that shall boost all indices of economy.

Imran Khan used his bonhomie with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to amicably resolve the Karkey dispute and saved Pakistan US$1.2 billion penalty imposed by the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID. All while he was under siege.

Undermining the significance of OIC in Islamabad reflects ignorance of politicians (PDM). When 57 Muslim Nations attend this conference, it is not confined to Afghanistan. Strategically it offers an opportunity to connect Cars to the Arabian Sea, Middle East and Indian Ocean.  

If readers reflect about the Cars, it will lead to the most obvious conclusion of Eurasia, the Achilles Heels of the West for over a century. Also be informed that majority population in Eurasia is Muslim. So when Eurasia is connected, it means one large contagious Muslim Block from Eurasia to Africa.  Switching to Eurasia will have his difficulties but Pakistan under the leadership of Imran Khan has to successfully wade through this River of Fire.

There are other success stories that Pakistanis must know. Covid-19 Management, Revenue Collection, Current Account Deficit, Exports, Remittances, Sehat Cards, Scholarships, SME Loans, Entrepreneurships and Education are to name a few.

So when Pakistan is on the march, global and domestic interests are aligned and much needed National Character and Morale visible through masses, why should Imran Khan go?

Only the enemies and self-centered politicians could wish so.