INSIGHT AND FORESIGHT

January 25, 2014

COGNITION: THE ENEMY WITHIN

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In a presentation to General Pervez Musharraf in 1998, I had recited a few versus written by me. The theme was that, ‘like my country, I am at war within myself. I am my biggest enemy’. Those were that days when the COAS was a chum of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and ready lock, stock and barrel to back the government in fast track socio-economic development.

Pakistan had recently become a declared nuclear power. Delivery systems were being tested with remarkable frequency. Pakistan’s hopes of political autonomy were laid to rest by freezing of foreign currency accounts. Pakistan’s economy was plummeting and the country was under international nuclear sanctions.

Within the region, Pakistan’s backing of Afghan Taliban and inducted fighters in Kashmir continued relentlessly. During in house discussions I singled out Pakistan’s interference in Afghanistan and use of non-state actors in Indian held Kashmir as acts that would return like daemons to haunt. Nuclear Pakistan was behaving irresponsibly filliping the choice of operations other than war against an ambitious but a politically and economically unstable self. International research organisations were churning out papers on crises management if a nuclear armed state went unstable. To compound matters, nuclear Pakistan with a declared ‘First Use’ deterrence initiated the Kargil Conflict; a limited war under a nuclear shadow. Pakistan proved to the world that a limited conventional conflict between nuclear rivals was possible that later opened gates for armed intervention like cross border incursions and drones. Pakistan found Kargil too hot to handle and abandoned ambitions of exploiting a vacuum in Indian held Kashmir. The misdeed was reciprocated by a cantankerous dismissal of a COAS and the resultant coup by a coterie of generals whose memories were still fresh with the Kargil guilt. Pakistan’s isolation engineered by its very own was complete but for Twin Tower attacks.

Many saw 9/11 as a blessing in disguise for Pakistan with an opportunity to break away from past policies and concentrate on nation building. The Kargil planners were still around and would ensure that a paradigm shift if any would be a camouflage for a new word inserted into strategic glossary, ‘Assets’. The state with a multi bipolar disorder continued to follow a policy of shielding and preserving its assets. The strategist’s key word was no more Kashmir but Afghanistan.

In this prolonged conflict the so called assets have run lose and jeer at the faces of their past mentors. Pakistan’s interests have narrowed down to supporting one group within one ethnicity in Afghanistan. All others are either enemy or potential ones. This in turn has created crises of ethnic and sectarian vulnerability within. Growing radicalism has helped gel extremist elements in a society where no one is safe. Militants have permeated every sinew of society with threats hanging like Damocles Swords over the heads of national leaders. Anyone anywhere can be assassinated. The conclusions are grim.

Within Pakistan’s politic body, cognition of impending threats is opinionated and diverse. The perception does not flow from the dangers to the nation but personal or political vulnerability. Methodologies to deal with this menace are divided, leaving a gaping hole in the national reconciliation. The lack of consensus and abundance thereof of political jargon has resulted in creating a National Crisis of Cognition, leaving the field wide open for militants to exploit. This phenomenon inhibits recognition of impending dangers and consensus in dealing with the menace of terrorism. While some political parties safe in their hideouts continue to demand swift military action against terrorism, others hold out an olive branch drenched in blood each time the terrorists strike. Lost within their fantasies of a fantastic self, the typology and dissection of the real issue is a subject all parties deliberately avoid.  

Notwithstanding General (Retired) Kayani’s belated admission that it is ‘Our War’ the military or a part of it still sees the Afghan conflict as a brinkmanship that will succeed. With dates of US withdrawal approaching and US rapprochement with Iran, somebody will have to get down to the serious business of counting how many eggs are left in the basket. If Pakistan succeeds in its walking on the edge policy in a post US withdrawal Afghanistan, it would have once again performed an impossible Houdini Act. But the multitude of internal kinetics suggest otherwise.

Afghanistan poses another dilemma. The prolonged conflict in FATA and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa with diverse strains of home grown and foreign militants has paradoxically helped identify foreign support bases comprising both state and non-state actors outside the traditional rant of US global ambitions. Would it be astute on part of Pakistan to get involved in a proxy sectarian conflict that majority of Pakistanis do not support but which the governments in the past are guilty of. So if the matrix of trade-offs and choices are exercised, chances are that it will be another shot in the foot with the hunter becoming the hunted.

Realistically, it is not FATA but Karachi that gives a measure of what Pakistan could become. The diversity of crime and lawlessness in this city is beyond description. Most political parties in the province either have armed militant wings or get support from militant group. To perpetuate their activities, TTP is a convenient punching bag. Sectarian and sub sectarian groups operate with remarkable abandon. Mafias, extortionists and criminals criss-cross within these organisations with convenience. The police and local administration is highly politicised. This lethal brew has not reached a boiling point because the interested parties have more stakes in the limbo than outright anarchy. Yet it could, if any one of the interested party pulls the trigger. With a compliant local administration, the same scenario can be replicated in major urban centres of the country.

As predicted, the APC on terrorism is proving to be another stratagem and farce to fool the people of Pakistan. Despite intelligence agencies, a credible messenger has yet to get any message across. On the other hand the starting point of negotiations if any are related to stopping of drone strikes by USA and release of prisoners who have their hands soiled in the blood of thousands of Pakistanis. Knowing that both are equally improbable, the stalemate continues to add to uncertainties within us.

Civilian institutions in the Swat Case Study have yet to develop the capability to supplement military operations with effective passive peace keeping. The same would be true of other urban centres where the violence could hypothetically conflagrate. Military and LEAs in their present capacities and capabilities would provide limited defensive shields. The absence of an urban counter terrorism apparatus and quick reaction forces would denude the reaction capabilities of the existing law enforcement structure. Even if such a structure existed, the biggest compromise would be the integral and affiliated militant wings of political parties; Hence the reluctance to formulate a comprehensive counter-terrorism policy.

Military action against the militant hideouts in FATA would be complete in three to four months but result in only a battle won. Who will win the war? Victory will only come if the state, its machinery, judiciary and political parties move in tandem; something that does not appear probable in the existing state of affairs.

Brigadier (Retired) Samson Simon Sharaf is a political economist and a television anchorperson.

Email and twitter: samson.sharaf@gmail.com

 

December 29, 2013

2013: A YEAR WASTED

Roshni

In an article published on 2 January 2013 titled, ‘Resolutions every Pakistani must make’ it was emphasised that willing people can brave the most trying circumstances through emotions, aspirations, dedication and surges of national character and morale to propel a nations to pinnacles of greatness. 2013 being an election year was deemed to be the year of the people provided they made or were allowed to exercise the right choices.

Pakistan is a country lost in wilderness since creation. It suffers from a range of cancers that evade piecemeal treatment. There is no single cause that addressed would put the country on the path to prosperity. The entire politic body is infected with immune maladies that warrant to be attacked on a broad front. These afflictions are distorted history, ideological contradictions, socio-economic disparities, law and order, and a manipulative democracy. As the year ends, Pakistan remains a derelict ship lost in the high seas with a diversity of lethal cargo. In a way, it is this nuisance that helps sustain elites that have benefited most. In the past, democracy claimed its sweet revenge from the state in that it promoted personal gratification of elites and not the people it claims to serve. Most, it ate into the state. In my view, 2013 could have been the year of change but turned out to be the opposite.

In fact, numerous events, compromises, lingering doubts and unresolved questions not addressed before August 1947 haunt Pakistan even today. As in the past when some of the most effective leaders of the independence movement were disgraced, Pakistan’s politic body rejects progressive and nationalist leaders. This proves that the consequences of making Pakistan had not been deliberated and analysed threadbare. Hence as time passed, many leaders and people kept falling away till Pakistan was divided in 1971. Those who remain are political stragglers who have no value for the present ruling classes. Pakistan still faces crises of frontiers and ethnic vulnerability.

The first victims of this regurgitation were the Bengali leaders who actually floated the idea of a separate homeland for Muslims. Prominent amongst them were Sher e Bengal Abdul Kasem Fazlul Huq who after a ‘love-hate’ relationship with the League, drafted and presented the Lahore Resolution and Jogendra Nath Mandal, the first law minister of Pakistan. Others included Choudhury Khaliquzzaman of UP, GM Syed of Sindh, Joshua Fazal Din of Punjab and the entire progressive group that helped ignite the Kashmir Movement but were labelled as traitors in Rawalpindi Conspiracy. The disgraceful treatment of Sher e Bengal, GM Syed and Faiz Group meant that there was no place in Pakistan for those who dared to dissent with the narrative being framed by the establishment.

There is no doubt that Pakistan lost its spirit and direction after the death of Qaid E Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah. The West Pakistani politicians in connivance with the military, religious right and bureaucracy swiftly alienated the actual vanguard of the Pakistan Movement to sedition and anti-state activities. The political compulsions of states that acceded to Pakistan due to geographical proximity were ignored and the instruments of accession flouted to suit the new narrative. The purpose was to promote an ideology that could work as a bulwark for containment strategy to serve the masters and not the people. As time passed, the interests of these groups grew within their anchors situated abroad.

1949 onwards, these elites marginalised the freedom leaders and proceeded towards inventive nationalism. This disconnect over time has grown in enormity and does not conform to the aspirations of the people. The intention was the creation of a class with unabated nuisance value to evolve a new narrative based on national security, ideology and a vague idea of Pan Islamism. Consequently, a new genre of ultra-patriots has been created who believe in this falsification and can go to any length in defending it.

The first resolution therefore in the above cited article was that every Pakistan must read the true and unadulterated history of Pakistan movement. Though events leading to the execution of Abdul Qadir Molla in Bangladesh, did lead to some debates in Pakistan, the intent was patchy and nefarious. Opinion makers of Pakistan failed in any effort to correct history. As far as the establishment and its propaganda are concerned, the rant of Trojans and traitors continues.  Metaphorically, Pakistan has failed to move beyond Allama Muhammad Iqbal’s Pan Islamism to Faiz Ahmad Faiz’ Nationalism. The ultra-religious right in diverse forms and manifestations will continue to be the major custodians of this narrative that displaced stalwarts of Pakistan Movement.

The second resolution was to put the country before the self and work with dedication in whatever sphere we belong. The idea was that instead of being critical of others, if each Pakistani puts his house in order, the effect would be rippling and conflagrate to the whole country. Professional honesty, tax remittances, individual character, austerity and increase in outputs would lead to a broad spectrum conservation and create more space for national growth. Unfortunately, hyperinflation, heavy governmental borrowing from the private sector, reactive energy policy and failure to control mega cartels like Pakistan State Oil represents a Trojan ready to engulf any individual efforts.

The third resolution was to build more bridges than walls. Yet opinion makers in politicians, media and organisations ensured that more walls were built to ensure that their adversary dries up from inside. Militancy, violence and crimes were the major beneficiary of this apathy. A stage reached where some political parties openly empathised with the militants, declared them martyrs and succeeded in putting firewalls before counter terrorism efforts that in any case lack national direction. The cruellest cut was the singular design by some media houses to disgrace and malign the armed forces of Pakistan for acting as a state within a state and killing millions of Bengalis in former East Pakistan. For a change, it was the Indian media that sounded more favourable towards the armed forces of Pakistan. The Civil-Military debate in the media and research organisations was unnecessarily negative and prolonged. It goes without doubt that the present media debate against the military is part of a well thought plan that opaqueness of General Retired Kayani inadvertently helped sustain. This approach of stamping a mouse when there is a tiger at the door will be destructive.

In contrast, no solid efforts were made to address the economic issues that squarely fall on the shoulders of the civilian establishment. Devaluation, dwindling reserves and rising debts ensured that Pakistan’s economy remains on weak tenterhooks. While the dollar spending rich became rich each day, the poverty index has taken a deeper plunge.  Energy crises went from bad to worse, exports plummeted at the cost of imports, rupee became worthless, unemployment grew and civic amenities vanished.  The issues of law, order and terrorism still reckon imaginative counter measures.

The fourth and fifth resolutions pertained to turning out in high numbers and casting votes for a change. Though the people did turn up, their mandate was seriously corrupted by a compliant lower judiciary, gerrymandering and massive rigging. Barring a few ornamental cases, most election petitions were shoved into the black hole of election tribunals. The use of alternatives for magnetic inks, duplicate ballot papers, bogus voting and rejected thumb impressions belie the presence of secret hands. As a result, the people of Pakistan were denied a change through ballot. NADRA has become a ping pong between the ECP and Ministry of Interior.  Does this mean that the establishment with bad policies ensures that the road map to Pakistan’s instability is pursued relentlessly?

In the short term Pakistan’s two major issues are economic and terrorism. Both are not being addressed. Do we need Iqbal’s howling tempest to set our emotions alive and storm the symbols of power? 2014 could be the year of People’s Revolution.

Brigadier (Retired) Samson Simon Sharaf is a political economist and a television anchorperson.

Email and twitter: samson.sharaf@gmail.com

 

October 12, 2013

THE INDOMITABLE MALALA

Note her damaged face

Malala Yousafzai touches the heart and soul of every progressive Pakistani. She symbolises millions of unseen scavengers reduced to nothingness and living with the dream of a progressive, egalitarian and resilient Pakistan. Still a teenager, she reflects a sea of emotions shared by hundreds of millions that hope is not forlorn; that temperate quality of willpower and simplicity of innocence can work wonders. When stars bow out to the rising sun, Malala is a dewdrop nestled on the jaded green, defying the blinding light and encapsulating the ball of fire in colours of refraction. Like a rainbow that tides hope, Malala brings the tidings that violence is not only fought back with guns but also love.

 

Her defiance is ever more significant. She hails from a remote, violence ridden area of Pakistan where the ugly face of militants ruled the roost through bloodshed and anarchic justice. Rather than be traumatised by the central death square of Mingora close to her house; where human heads hung with traffic poles; where the stench of decaying human organs was nauseating; or suffer the indignity of living in make shift camps; she registered her disapproval and defiance by becoming the legendary Gul Mukai. Malala conquered fear and opened a battle front where thinkers had been denied space and where national leaders had feared to dare.

 

But Malala has detractors. In the frontline are militants who have vowed to kill her at first opportunity. Then there are those for whom an egalitarian Pakistan was never a dream. These men of limited vision with a pipedream see Malala as a challenge to their cognitive construct of what Pakistan ought to be. Malala is seen as an exploitable commodity at the hands of Yahood, Hinood, Zionists, anti-Islamic forces and ultimately a Dajjal. They portray her as the one eyed anti-Christ; and one who must be sent to dungeons. Malala is a daemon who must be fought lock, stock and barrel in every dimension to rid Pakistan of its biggest security challenge.

 

Such insinuations are not new and will prove to be a fire through which the gold must shine. Despite her celebrity status, Malala and her admirers will have to pass through this fire to redeem the country of the ills that besiege it.

 

Qaid E Azam Muhhamad Ali Jinnah lived and died fighting these religion exploiting minimalists. Yet, in the interim, they managed to bury the legacy of the founding father with similar slogans abetted by military dictators and opportunist politicians. Right up to the 20th amendment, they have managed to manipulate political parties to supress fundamental human rights in varying descriptions.  They demonised men like Faiz Ahmad Faiz, Dr. M D Taseer (who buried Aleem Ud Din Ghazi), Mian Iftikhar ud Din, Benazir Bhutto, Shahbaz Bhatti, Salman Taseer and Shahbaz Taseer. They have passed judgements on millions of Pakistanis since 1949; who either died at the hands of violence or left Pakistan for good. The ferocity of fear they instil is such that Pakistanis have refrained from celebrating and commemorating its only Noble laureate Dr. Abdul Salam. The narrative these minimalists propagate is an insult to Pakistan movement led by Qaid E Azam Mhammad Ali Jinnah. As Malala factor becomes viral and a cause for national celebrations, it defies their raison d’etre. They will retaliate.  But like Malala, who braved all dangers, the good moments in Pakistan however far and few must be enjoyed with vigour and prolonged with relentless fervour.

 

In a country where politicians obliquely take-on terrorists; where judges are afraid of passing judgements; where witnesses are either killed or forced into submission; and where the system classifies crime as the good, bad and ugly; Malala has risen to become an internationally recognised icon and spokesperson of Pakistan. Critics who label her father as over ambitious and one selling his daughter to the West for few moments of glory ignore the instinct that every parent wishes his dreams fulfilled through his children. That Mr. Zia ud Din Yousafzai has groomed his daughter for a dream shared by Pakistanis is no crime. As a retort, the nation owes its gratitude to this father for a daughter who has become the humane face of her motherland. While Malala shares the limelight, we must acknowledge the parents who sired and mentored such an indomitable daughter to become an internationally acclaimed image of Pakistan.

 

There are also speculations that Malala is a manufactured commodity elevated at an opportune time to subdue Pakistan into submission. These detractors must know that Malala’s injury was real. A part of her skull was blown away. The doctors in the neurosurgical department in the Swat hospital testify that she needed specialised medical care for rehabilitation. They suspected irreparable nerve damage. Fauzia Kasuri and Neelam Toru with many others were right there when she was shifted to CMH Peshawar. The squint in her eye and signs of facial palsy on the left side testify that she survived an assassin’s bullets. Though Malala will continue to carry the scars of injury, this face is also the pride of every Pakistani.

 

Malala’s iconic resistance and elevation provides Pakistanis a moment of introspection. In a society torn by ideological conflicts and political contradictions, her non-violent resistance to forces of tyranny prove that the temperate quality of willpower outstrips violence. If Pakistan has to revert to the dreams of its founding fathers, then it is the responsibility of every citizen to emulate Malala and make sure they matter. On the matrix of national psychology, Malala provides the needed high point to make Pakistan a credible, self-reliant and a proud country in peace at home and abroad. One lesson that must not be lost is ‘to overcome anger with love’.

 

Malala is Pakistan and the nation must seize the moment.

 

The writer is a retired officer of Pakistan Army and a political economist. Email: samson.sharaf@gmail.com

 

http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/columns/12-Oct-2013/malala-an-icon

 

 

Note her damaged face

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